Malaysian politics now at a watershed

Malaysian politics now at a watershed

By Nelson Graves

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters): A retired army officer says he no longer ventures outside at night in Malaysia's capital because he fears civil unrest.

Kuala Lumpur is hardly under siege, but the officer's anxiety reflects the political sea change under way in a country known more for gentle people than riot police.

A no-holds-barred struggle between Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad and his former deputy, Anwar Ibrahim, has put unprecedented strains on the body politic, diplomats and analysts say.

"This is undoubtedly a watershed in Malaysian politics," Chandra Muzaffar, a professor at the University of Malaya, said. "I don't think we've had anything like this before."

Mahathir, 72, retains his grip on the levers of power after 17 years as prime minister.

Leaders of his United Malays National Organization (UMNO) have stood solidly behind Mahathir, supporting him at every turn as Anwar was sacked, expelled from UMNO and arrested.

But Mahathir, who on Sept. 3 said he had no immediate need for a new deputy, has now changed his mind, stirring inevitable questions about an eventual transfer of power.

"I can't wait any longer because if anything happens to me, he (the deputy) would be prime minister of this country," Mahathir said on Wednesday, telling local reporters that he now wanted UMNO to consider choosing a new deputy leader.

Mahathir, who underwent a by-pass operation after a heart attack in 1989, said he could "drop dead" at any time. "I know this, having had one heart attack before," he said.

There was no knowing whether Mahathir, who has repeatedly cautioned against "Indonesian-style riots", had turned his own sights to a transfer of power now that thousands of citizens have taken to the streets denouncing him.

But public anxiety was rising in line with the extraordinary struggle between Mahathir and Anwar that has spawned a string of court cases and brought protesters onto the streets.

Mahathir's administration did win some credit for producing Anwar in court this week and pressing criminal charges.

Anwar was still being detained under the Internal Security Act, but now had the prospect of an open trial where he could defend himself.

"This is a positive step because he has been produced and charged under criminal statutes," a Western diplomat said. "It reflects marginal transparency."

But Anwar's statement that he had been beaten by police provoked a firestorm of criticism from rights groups, opposition parties and foreign governments.

Holes emerging in the government's case against Anwar looked sure to erode confidence in the state, analysts said.

Two men who had pleaded guilty to being sodomized by Anwar were prepared to retract their pleas. That could undermine the government's allegations that the former deputy prime minister was morally unfit.

None of the five corruption charges against Anwar alleged that he had amassed wealth. Instead, four of the charges said he had pressed police to obtain confessions from people denying sodomy with him.

The fifth corruption charge alleged that he had interfered with an investigation into suspected corruption by an aide.

"People are dismayed that a number of institutions have been undermined -- the media, judiciary and police," said one analyst who asked not be identified.

Chandra said: "The Malaysian people are very, very depressed. There is a concern about the institutions -- the judiciary, attorney general and police. How are we going to emerge from this episode?"

He said Mahathir still had total control over the cabinet and parliament.

"But popular sentiment is something else. In a democracy, you cannot rule with institutions of coercion. There must be a moral basis to your power. There has been an erosion of moral legitimacy."

A Western diplomat said: "There is a serious fear that this could escalate out of control."