Malaysia casts wary eye on Indonesia vote

Malaysia casts wary eye on Indonesia vote

By Nelson Graves

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters): A woman leads the opposition to victory over the party which has governed the nation for decades.

That's a dream for millions of Indonesians but a nightmare for those in Malaysia's dominant party.

Indonesia's first truly multi-party election in more than four decades has resonated in Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's dominant United Malays National Organization (UMNO).

"The results in Indonesia have not gone down well with UMNO," said a political analyst who asked not to be identified.

The twists and turns of Indonesian politics have special meaning for Malaysia as the neighboring states are both mostly Moslem and for decades have been dominated by powerful parties.

"It is very important for Malaysia to see who runs Indonesia and how they get along because of the historical animosity," the analyst said, referring to border tension between the two nations in the 1960s.

The comparison extends to the opposition, where women have emerged as major power brokers. Megawati Sukarnoputri of the Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) appears poised to stake a claim to forming Indonesia's next government.

Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, the wife of Malaysia's jailed former finance minister Anwar Ibrahim, has formed a multi-ethnic party that wants to challenge Mahathir in general polls expected soon.

No one is suggesting the 73-year-old Mahathir, in power since 1981, is about to go the way of former Indonesian president Soeharto.

Mahathir's 14-party coalition led by UMNO won a whopping four- fifths majority in general elections in 1995, and it is expected to win the next polls, although perhaps by a narrower margin. The polls are expected soon.

UMNO is vastly different from Indonesia's Golkar, and Mahathir's Barisan Nasional (National Front) coalition is a multi-ethnic political machine with no match in Malaysia's bigger southern neighbor.

Mahathir remains a magnetic personality with political stature rivaled perhaps only by Anwar -- who is serving a jail term that will keep him out of public office at least until 2008.

But an end to Golkar's stranglehold on power would surely reverberate through UMNO.

The denouement could be especially significant if Golkar bowed out peacefully.

Mahathir was long a supportive neighbor of Soeharto, whose 32- year reign ended abruptly in May 1998 after violent protests.

Only days before Soeharto stepped down, Mahathir exonerated the Indonesian leader and all but blamed the International Monetary Fund for provoking deadly riots in Jakarta.

Soeharto's downfall emboldened some of Anwar's supporters, prompting swift and sure retaliation by Mahathir at the UMNO general assembly just one year ago. Mahathir has repeatedly accused Anwar's supporters of trying to topple his government with Indonesian-style riots.

Now Megawati's party is ahead following peaceful polling in Indonesia, putting her in prime position to seek the formation of a coalition government.

Megawati, the daughter of founding president Sukarno, is seen as the likely next president, although some Moslem groups have voiced opposition to a woman holding the post.

Megawati also raises eyebrows in Kuala Lumpur's ruling party as her father harbored much hostility towards Malaysia as evidenced during the konfrontasi (confrontation), a tense border standoff in the 1960s.

Malaysian leaders are not yet sure what Megawati stands for, and it was not even clear whether her victory would bode well for Wan Azizah as it has been President B.J. Habibie, not Megawati, who has sided most publicly with Anwar.

With one eye on Indonesia, Mahathir told UMNO members in a closed-door meeting on Wednesday to beware the political lessons in other countries.

He warned UMNO delegates not to underestimate the challenge that an alliance between Wan Azizah's National Justice Party and the Islamic fundamentalist PAS party could pose.

"I explained to them the history of UMNO struggle," Mahathir told reporters after addressing party leaders ahead of UMNO's annual general assembly this week.

"We saw what happened to the parties that fought for independence in other countries," he told the press. During the closed-door session he had mentioned India's Congress Party and Pakistan's Muslim League.

"If they (UMNO leaders) are not careful, they will lose support."