Mahathir's 20th year in power

By Eileen Ng

KUALA LUMPUR (AFP): Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, the country's longest-serving leader, is to start his 20th year in office Sunday without any sign he will soon hand over the reins of power, analysts and politicians say.

At 74, the doctor-turned-politician has survived two recessions, a major split in his political party in 1987, and the sacking in September 1998 of his popular deputy, Anwar Ibrahim -- not to mention quadruple heart bypass surgery in 1989.

Mahathir led his National Front coalition to victory in November's polls and six months later returned unopposed as president of the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), the linchpin of the coalition.

The premier in May firmly endorsed his deputy, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, as his successor and said he would start handing over some duties. But he has refused to set a retirement date.

"I can't be here forever. I am mortal. I may get sick, I may drop dead. I don't know or I may decide that everything is now in place (and) I will retire," he said.

Most analysts and politicians predict Mahathir will complete his fifth five-year term before handing the mantle to Abdullah, and foresee little trouble when he does.

"It is hard to imagine a man who has been in the driving seat for so long step down on volition," said Bruce Gale, regional manager at the Singapore-based Political and Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC).

Gale said Mahathir's personality had made Malaysian politics "much more direct and confrontational than it was in the 1970s."

"He was widely touted as a reformer in those days but 19 years later, he is seen very much as part of the establishment and critics call him an authoritarian leader who is holding Malaysia back," Gale said.

Lim Kit Siang, chairman of the opposition Democratic Action Party, said Mahathir would want to stay on to ensure the "possibility of Anwar returning is minimal."

"The jury is also still out whether Mahathir has found the formula for sustainable economic recovery and growth," he said.

Lim said the premier had become "more and more cut-off from his contemporaries" and "removed from the general feelings of the people."

Musa Hitam, who was deputy premier from 1981 to 1986, said Mahathir faced the danger of "insulating himself from the realities of the outside world" by staying in office too long.

While Mahathir has given Malaysians pride and a sense of identity, he had in the process created a "political culture that is more divisive because of his confrontational style of leadership," Musa told AFP.

The combative Mahathir is Malaysia's fourth premier and its most controversial since independence in 1957 -- a former Malay nationalist firebrand once cast out from his own party for his radical views.

He has largely forsaken diplomatic niceties to be a champion of developing countries, rarely hesitating to criticize the perceived arrogance of the West.

But the reign of this slightly built, bespectacled son of a school teacher has been full of political contradictions.

He started out as a "good doctor" protecting the interests of the grass roots and promising clean government, but his administration has been dogged by allegations of corruption and cronyism.

Few however, can dispute Mahathir's economic track record in transforming Malaysia from an agricultural backwater into an industrial power. He has set 2020 as the target by which to turn the country into an industrial nation.

For Malaysia to enter the information technology era, Mahathir has created the world's first multimedia super corridor, adjacent to a new administrative metropolis south of the capital.

But the DAP's Lim said Mahathir's government had created a skewered society.

"There is no basic ballast to ensure that the economic development is matched also by social, political and democratic changes," he said.

PERC's Gale said Mahathir would have to grapple with the "growing dissent among the Malay community after Anwar's sacking and a feeling that UMNO is in need of fundamental reforms."

"There will be a little uncertainty if he steps down, at least in the short-term transition, until Abdullah finds his feet," he said.