Mahathir seen likely to quit, retraction buys time

Mahathir seen likely to quit, retraction buys time

Simon Cameron-Moore, Reuters, Kuala Lumpur

Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's retraction of his
shock resignation on Saturday was only to give other party
leaders time to work out the transition of power, a senior ruling
party source said.

Asia's longest serving leader believed the time was right to
step down after 21 years in power and he would be going through
with his resignation, the source in the United Malays National
Organization (UMNO) told Reuters.

Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi would take over
the premiership at some point soon, the question was when, the
source, who requested anonymity, said.

"That seems to be the position as we're hearing it too," one
western diplomat told Reuters.

The 76-year-old Mahathir flew to Italy for a 10-day holiday on
Sunday after a meeting with other UMNO leaders.

The ruling Barisan Nasional coalition, meanwhile, was to hold
a supreme council meeting to clarify the political situation, the
official Bernama news agency said.

Bernama said Abdullah had told reporters that the meeting
would take place "as soon as possible" so as to allay any
confusion about Saturday's events.

UMNO sources said they expected the supreme council to meet
either later on Sunday or Monday to agree on a statement.

A sobbing Mahathir rocked the UMNO general assembly on
Saturday by announcing he was quitting all party and coalition
posts. The speech was carried live on national television.

Within an hour Abdullah and other party leaders had talked him
into withdrawing the resignation, but sources say Mahathir told
them privately he was adamant he would hand over power.

The other key issue to be resolved is who takes over from
Abdullah as deputy prime minister. Two strong candidates are
Defense Minister Najib Tun Razak and Domestic Trade Minister
Muhyiddin Yassin.

Najib refused to comment on events on Sunday, saying it was up
to Abdullah to issue any statement.

But UMNO leaders, led by Abdullah, were busy paying respects
to an opposition leader, Parti Islam se-Malaysia president Fadzil
Noor, who died on Sunday.

Analysts said Mahathir would have resigned only if he was sure
that Malaysia would not suffer the chaos seen in the Philippines
and Indonesia, when their strongman leaders Ferdinand Marcos and
Soeharto fell from power.

Diplomats said they were puzzled why Mahathir had resigned and
then retracted if he really intended to go. It would appear a
messy way of bowing out for one of Asia's wiliest politicians.

One said Mahathir looked overwrought on Saturday, and
speculated that fatigue and emotion might have played a part.

"It's not surprising if you look at the schedule he keeps for
a man of his age," he said.

Mahathir has made a series of high-profile overseas visits in
recent months, including to the White House and the Vatican.

His support for the U.S.-led war on terror and reputation as a
strong moderate Muslim leader raised Mahathir's standing in the
West after the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States.

Another diplomat said Mahathir's early exit would help
Abdullah take over smoothly, whereas the deputy's position could
become more difficult if Mahathir chose to overstay.

"I'd be surprised if they didn't fall in line behind Abdullah
in the short term at least," he said, referring to other leaders
in UMNO who had ambitions for the top job.

UMNO sources said Mahathir was determined to quit and go out
on a high note after delivering the country from the economic
abyss of the 1997/98 Asian crisis and UMNO from its disastrous
showing in the 1999 election. Analysts agreed.

UMNO sources dismissed talk that the resignation offer was a
stunt to strengthen Mahathir's grip on the party so that he could
push through reforms ethnic Malays would find hard to swallow.

While Mahathir did not say why he wanted to step down,
newspapers said it was probably due to disappointment at the lack
of progress by the country's majority ethnic Malays.

In a speech last week, Mahathir apologized for failing to
change Malay attitudes despite decades of special privileges in a
country where the ethnic Chinese minority dominates business.