Mahathir plans snap polls to avoid facing new voters
Mahathir plans snap polls to avoid facing new voters
By Nelson Graves
KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters): Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has opted for snap elections so he can capitalize on a solid economic rebound and avoid facing more than half a million new voters next year.
For months Asia's longest serving elected leader has considered holding early polls to catch a new opposition coalition off guard.
But his announcement on Wednesday that he wants snap polls soon took even cabinet ministers by surprise because he had seemed increasingly resigned to waiting until 2000.
"It's amazing," said one political analyst, noting at least one cabinet minister was overseas when Mahathir announced his decision, as well as an advance team at the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in South Africa, which Mahathir skipped.
Mahathir's recent reluctance to hold early polls stemmed largely from the perceived erosion of his electoral base.
Mahathir, 73, has been dogged by criticism over the sacking and jailing of his former deputy, Anwar Ibrahim, who despite being behind bars remains front and center in the nation's politics and the opposition choice as prime minister.
Disgruntlement among Muslim voters over Anwar's fate has prevented Mahathir's United Malays National Organization (UMNO) from building its usual momentum among the ranks of rural citizens who form the backbone of the nation's dominant party.
Mahathir last month conceded in an interview with Reuters that retaining a two-thirds parliamentary majority would be a "problem" for his 14-party coalition, which since independence has never been deprived of the margin needed to amend the constitution.
Confronted with so much uncertainty, Mahathir kept putting off the decision. He admitted to reporters that until Tuesday he was resigned to going to the polls in January.
But the calendar is complicated by religious events and new electoral rolls.
One important factor in Mahathir's decision to dissolve parliament was thought to be the registration of some 650,000 new voters believed to be largely young and anti-establishment.
The Election Commission has said the new voters, who signed up earlier this year, will be on the rolls by the end of January.
Mahathir, apparently concerned the bulk of the new voters will turn to the opposition, considered sidestepping the problem by holding snap elections in January before the new rolls take effect.
But the Muslim fasting month of Ramadhan ends in early January and Chinese New Year falls in early February, leaving too small a window of opportunity for campaigning between the two dates, politicians said.
Because it would be inconceivable to hold general elections during Ramadhan in Muslim majority Malaysia, he had the choice of waiting until late February or March, or moving right now.
"Yesterday I got the inspiration," Mahathir said. Polls are now expected by Dec. 4, the last weekend before the fasting month begins.
Malaysia's economic rebound is another good reason for Mahathir to move now.
The government announced this week that industrial production jumped by more than 19 percent in September, and analysts are rushing to revise upwards their estimates of third quarter economic growth, seen by most as over seven percent year-on-year.
Opposition leader Lim Kit Siang said two other factors may have nudged Mahathir.
He cited a recent statement by a leader of the opposition Parti Islam se-Malaysia (PAS), Nik Aziz Nik Mat, who said the Islamic fundamentalist party was prepared to accept a non-Muslim as prime minister.
Leaders of Mahathir's Barisan Nasional have pounced on the statement as a sign PAS would abandon the dominance of Muslim Malays, who make up more than half of Malaysia's population.
Lim also mentioned Anwar's sodomy trial, where Mahathir has been subpoenaed to testify in what could be a politically crucial appearance.
But the trial was suspended on Wednesday when the judge took ill with a back ache, raising the prospect that Mahathir's testimony might come after elections.
The opposition does not expect to win the election but would be satisfied with clinching a one-third minority in the 192-seat lower house for the first time and increasing the number of states it controls from its current one -- Kelantan.
If it succeeded on both counts, the opposition says it could mount an assault on power in the next elections.
Mahathir's own standing could be at stake. UMNO is set to elect its leaders at a triennial general assembly in mid-2000.
While UMNO leaders are in lock step with Mahathir now, it is not clear what would happen if he was seen as suffering a setback at the coming polls or whether he would go the way of some other regional leaders in the wake of Asia's financial crisis.
Mahathir, for his part, would benefit if voters handed him a solid win ending 15 months of political turmoil that has kept away some wary foreign investors and united the opposition.