Mahathir plans snap polls to avoid facing new voters

Mahathir plans snap polls to avoid facing new voters

By Nelson Graves

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters): Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir
Mohamad has opted for snap elections so he can capitalize on a
solid economic rebound and avoid facing more than half a million
new voters next year.

For months Asia's longest serving elected leader has
considered holding early polls to catch a new opposition
coalition off guard.

But his announcement on Wednesday that he wants snap polls
soon took even cabinet ministers by surprise because he had
seemed increasingly resigned to waiting until 2000.

"It's amazing," said one political analyst, noting at least
one cabinet minister was overseas when Mahathir announced his
decision, as well as an advance team at the Commonwealth Heads of
Government meeting in South Africa, which Mahathir skipped.

Mahathir's recent reluctance to hold early polls stemmed
largely from the perceived erosion of his electoral base.

Mahathir, 73, has been dogged by criticism over the sacking
and jailing of his former deputy, Anwar Ibrahim, who despite
being behind bars remains front and center in the nation's
politics and the opposition choice as prime minister.

Disgruntlement among Muslim voters over Anwar's fate has
prevented Mahathir's United Malays National Organization (UMNO)
from building its usual momentum among the ranks of rural
citizens who form the backbone of the nation's dominant party.

Mahathir last month conceded in an interview with Reuters that
retaining a two-thirds parliamentary majority would be a
"problem" for his 14-party coalition, which since independence
has never been deprived of the margin needed to amend the
constitution.

Confronted with so much uncertainty, Mahathir kept putting off
the decision. He admitted to reporters that until Tuesday he was
resigned to going to the polls in January.

But the calendar is complicated by religious events and new
electoral rolls.

One important factor in Mahathir's decision to dissolve
parliament was thought to be the registration of some 650,000 new
voters believed to be largely young and anti-establishment.

The Election Commission has said the new voters, who signed up
earlier this year, will be on the rolls by the end of January.

Mahathir, apparently concerned the bulk of the new voters will
turn to the opposition, considered sidestepping the problem by
holding snap elections in January before the new rolls take
effect.

But the Muslim fasting month of Ramadhan ends in early January
and Chinese New Year falls in early February, leaving too small a
window of opportunity for campaigning between the two dates,
politicians said.

Because it would be inconceivable to hold general elections
during Ramadhan in Muslim majority Malaysia, he had the choice of
waiting until late February or March, or moving right now.

"Yesterday I got the inspiration," Mahathir said. Polls are
now expected by Dec. 4, the last weekend before the fasting month
begins.

Malaysia's economic rebound is another good reason for
Mahathir to move now.

The government announced this week that industrial production
jumped by more than 19 percent in September, and analysts are
rushing to revise upwards their estimates of third quarter
economic growth, seen by most as over seven percent year-on-year.

Opposition leader Lim Kit Siang said two other factors may
have nudged Mahathir.

He cited a recent statement by a leader of the opposition
Parti Islam se-Malaysia (PAS), Nik Aziz Nik Mat, who said the
Islamic fundamentalist party was prepared to accept a non-Muslim
as prime minister.

Leaders of Mahathir's Barisan Nasional have pounced on the
statement as a sign PAS would abandon the dominance of Muslim
Malays, who make up more than half of Malaysia's population.

Lim also mentioned Anwar's sodomy trial, where Mahathir has
been subpoenaed to testify in what could be a politically crucial
appearance.

But the trial was suspended on Wednesday when the judge took
ill with a back ache, raising the prospect that Mahathir's
testimony might come after elections.

The opposition does not expect to win the election but would
be satisfied with clinching a one-third minority in the 192-seat
lower house for the first time and increasing the number of
states it controls from its current one -- Kelantan.

If it succeeded on both counts, the opposition says it could
mount an assault on power in the next elections.

Mahathir's own standing could be at stake. UMNO is set to
elect its leaders at a triennial general assembly in mid-2000.

While UMNO leaders are in lock step with Mahathir now, it is
not clear what would happen if he was seen as suffering a setback
at the coming polls or whether he would go the way of some other
regional leaders in the wake of Asia's financial crisis.

Mahathir, for his part, would benefit if voters handed him a
solid win ending 15 months of political turmoil that has kept
away some wary foreign investors and united the opposition.