Mahathir leaves to gauge Malaysia's progress

By David Chew

SINGAPORE (JP): Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad took two months leave beginning May 19 to visit Britain and France. But it will not be a complete holiday for the long-serving workaholic premier. He will be as busy as ever, promoting Malaysia's Multimedia Super Corridor (MSC), receiving the key of the City of London and writing a couple of books.

Turning author once again will give Mahathir, whose most famous book is the controversial Malay Dilemma, the opportunity to reorganize his thoughts in a big way -- to take stock of his achievements over the past 16 years as premier, reflect over recent trials and tribulations and fine-tune his policies.

In addition to writing about the New Economic Policy (NEP), the broad agenda of the government's affirmative action between 1970 and 1990 which had its origins in Malay Dilemma, Mahathir will most likely mull over certain recent events which have caused a big impact and continue to cast long shadows over Malaysia.

Top of the list will be the unity of the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), Malaysia's premier party. With its all-pervasive power and influence, UMNO is more than just the party of the politically dominant Malays and the leader of the ruling 14-party National Font (NF) coalition government of Malaysia.

One can assert that the political stability, economic prosperity and growing reputation of Malaysia as an eminent developing country continues to hinge on UMNO, especially its senior leaders, as it has done in the past 40 years since Malaysia gained its independence. UMNO is head and shoulders above all the other NF components.

Reorganizing his thoughts into a coherent pattern is something which Mahathir has not been able to do owing to his hectic daily schedule which includes going through numerous cabinet papers, chairing meetings, touring the length and breadth of the country and dealing with one issue after another. Given the diversity of Malaysia and the complex problems it faces, the situation is such that before the government can consider one challenge tackled, another invariably emerges.

There are numerous examples of such challenges. If one thinks that Mahathir has achieved unity in UMNO, simply by bringing its break-away wing, Parti Melayu Semangat 46 back into the party's fold after a lapse of 10 years, one has to also consider that many UMNO members have not forgotten their differences with their former political adversaries, and are unlikely to welcome them back with open arms. The premier will need to persuade the UMNO rank and file to be forgiving in the interests of Malay unity while at the same time prevailing upon the Semangat members to discard their opposition mentality.

Mahathir has also battled hard against corruption and money politics, getting the Anticorruption Agency to investigate eight Exco members from five state governments suspected of illegal land deals and other malpractices. This came as the former chief minister of the state of Selangor, Muhammad Muhammad Taib, was forced to step down pending the outcome of an investigation into him not declaring foreign currency at Brisbane International Airport in Australia last December.

In choosing a "clean" federal cabinet minister to replace Muhammad, Mahathir has gone against party tradition that only elected state representatives can become chief ministers. But he got round the problem by getting Abu Hassan Omar to resign as Consumer Affairs Minister to contest a safe UMNO state seat. He won the recent by-election and was appointed chief minister.

Mahathir has restrained the more vocal elements in UMNO from going overboard in their criticism of Singapore Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew concerning his remarks over security in the south Malaysian state of Johor. Although he may have been angry over the offending remarks which Lee subsequently deleted in his apology, Mahathir feels that in the long run, close ties rather than hostility toward Singapore would be to Malaysia's benefit, as both countries continue to be interdependent, especially in the realms of economics and security.

Much as he had previously dismissed the possibility by saying that his present cabinet was coping, Mahathir will have to contend with the issue of a cabinet reshuffle affecting only UMNO ministers when it comes to fine-tuning government policies. (Ministers from the other NF components are not involved since any reshuffle concerning them would not greatly affect government policies).

Being a practical leader, Mahathir cannot afford to ignore sentiments on the Malay ground for change as reflected in changes in the party power hierarchy after the UMNO general assembly last year and the readmission of Semangat members into UMNO.

It is likely that he will give a ministerial portfolio to the newly elected UMNO Youth chief, businessman Zahid Hamidi, and promote newly elected women's wing chief Siti Zaharah from deputy health minister to a full cabinet minister. This is because the incumbents for these positions are traditionally ministers. Mahathir is also likely to drop those who have been defeated in the party elections, like Youth and Sports Minister Muhyiddin Yassin who lost his incumbency as UMNO vice-president.

Mahathir will probably also appoint Semangat's top leaders Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah and Rais Yatim to cabinet positions, even though they have publicly said they are rejoining UMNO as ordinary members. The premier would deem it a waste of talent if Razaleigh and Rais, who had served as finance and foreign ministers respectively while they were in UMNO prior to Semangat's breakaway from the parent party in 1987, were not in the cabinet.

Analysts say this move would impress on UMNO members that the Semangat leaders who were former UMNO stalwarts would not be permitted to jump the queue for key ministries even though they may be capable. Like everyone else, they must once again earn their wings as ministers in non-key portfolios first.

This is the first time that Mahathir has taken such a long leave since becoming premier in 1981. Analysts say that he is, on the whole, satisfied with the achievements of the government despite certain shortcomings which he hopes to rectify in the fine-tuning process. Mahathir has made Anwar Ibrahim the acting prime minister in his absence. But he will continue to monitor the deputy premier while overseas. So concerned is Mahathir for a proper running of the show that he said he would cut short his leave and return home should matters get out of hand.

Anwar himself has openly stated that he is merely running the show for Mahathir, and will brief the premier on matters from time to time and seek his advice as and when necessary through a hotline.

Last Wednesday Anwar made a major decision by appointing Megat Junit Ayub to the consumers affairs minister portfolio vacated by Abu Hassan.

For Anwar who has been in the number two slot for four years, Mahathir's absence leaving him in charge for two months will be a real test of his mettle as to whether he is fit to step into the top spot. If he passes the test with flying colors, then his path to the next UMNO presidency and Malaysian premiership will be smooth. Otherwise it will be strewn with obstacles as potential challengers wait in the wings to take him on in the next UMNO elections in 1999.

The writer is a freelance journalist based in Singapore.