Mahathir leaves to gauge Malaysia's progress

Mahathir leaves to gauge Malaysia's progress

By David Chew

SINGAPORE (JP): Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad took
two months leave beginning May 19 to visit Britain and France.
But it will not be a complete holiday for the long-serving
workaholic premier. He will be as busy as ever, promoting
Malaysia's Multimedia Super Corridor (MSC), receiving the key of
the City of London and writing a couple of books.

Turning author once again will give Mahathir, whose most
famous book is the controversial Malay Dilemma, the opportunity
to reorganize his thoughts in a big way -- to take stock of his
achievements over the past 16 years as premier, reflect over
recent trials and tribulations and fine-tune his policies.

In addition to writing about the New Economic Policy (NEP),
the broad agenda of the government's affirmative action between
1970 and 1990 which had its origins in Malay Dilemma, Mahathir
will most likely mull over certain recent events which have
caused a big impact and continue to cast long shadows over
Malaysia.

Top of the list will be the unity of the United Malays
National Organization (UMNO), Malaysia's premier party. With its
all-pervasive power and influence, UMNO is more than just the
party of the politically dominant Malays and the leader of the
ruling 14-party National Font (NF) coalition government of
Malaysia.

One can assert that the political stability, economic
prosperity and growing reputation of Malaysia as an eminent
developing country continues to hinge on UMNO, especially its
senior leaders, as it has done in the past 40 years since
Malaysia gained its independence. UMNO is head and shoulders
above all the other NF components.

Reorganizing his thoughts into a coherent pattern is something
which Mahathir has not been able to do owing to his hectic daily
schedule which includes going through numerous cabinet papers,
chairing meetings, touring the length and breadth of the country
and dealing with one issue after another. Given the diversity of
Malaysia and the complex problems it faces, the situation is such
that before the government can consider one challenge tackled,
another invariably emerges.

There are numerous examples of such challenges. If one thinks
that Mahathir has achieved unity in UMNO, simply by bringing its
break-away wing, Parti Melayu Semangat 46 back into the party's
fold after a lapse of 10 years, one has to also consider that
many UMNO members have not forgotten their differences with their
former political adversaries, and are unlikely to welcome them
back with open arms. The premier will need to persuade the UMNO
rank and file to be forgiving in the interests of Malay unity
while at the same time prevailing upon the Semangat members to
discard their opposition mentality.

Mahathir has also battled hard against corruption and money
politics, getting the Anticorruption Agency to investigate eight
Exco members from five state governments suspected of illegal
land deals and other malpractices. This came as the former chief
minister of the state of Selangor, Muhammad Muhammad Taib, was
forced to step down pending the outcome of an investigation into
him not declaring foreign currency at Brisbane International
Airport in Australia last December.

In choosing a "clean" federal cabinet minister to replace
Muhammad, Mahathir has gone against party tradition that only
elected state representatives can become chief ministers. But he
got round the problem by getting Abu Hassan Omar to resign as
Consumer Affairs Minister to contest a safe UMNO state seat. He
won the recent by-election and was appointed chief minister.

Mahathir has restrained the more vocal elements in UMNO from
going overboard in their criticism of Singapore Senior Minister
Lee Kuan Yew concerning his remarks over security in the south
Malaysian state of Johor. Although he may have been angry over
the offending remarks which Lee subsequently deleted in his
apology, Mahathir feels that in the long run, close ties rather
than hostility toward Singapore would be to Malaysia's benefit,
as both countries continue to be interdependent, especially in
the realms of economics and security.

Much as he had previously dismissed the possibility by saying
that his present cabinet was coping, Mahathir will have to
contend with the issue of a cabinet reshuffle affecting only UMNO
ministers when it comes to fine-tuning government policies.
(Ministers from the other NF components are not involved since
any reshuffle concerning them would not greatly affect government
policies).

Being a practical leader, Mahathir cannot afford to ignore
sentiments on the Malay ground for change as reflected in changes
in the party power hierarchy after the UMNO general assembly last
year and the readmission of Semangat members into UMNO.

It is likely that he will give a ministerial portfolio to the
newly elected UMNO Youth chief, businessman Zahid Hamidi, and
promote newly elected women's wing chief Siti Zaharah from deputy
health minister to a full cabinet minister. This is because the
incumbents for these positions are traditionally ministers.
Mahathir is also likely to drop those who have been defeated in
the party elections, like Youth and Sports Minister Muhyiddin
Yassin who lost his incumbency as UMNO vice-president.

Mahathir will probably also appoint Semangat's top leaders
Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah and Rais Yatim to cabinet positions, even
though they have publicly said they are rejoining UMNO as
ordinary members. The premier would deem it a waste of talent if
Razaleigh and Rais, who had served as finance and foreign
ministers respectively while they were in UMNO prior to
Semangat's breakaway from the parent party in 1987, were not in
the cabinet.

Analysts say this move would impress on UMNO members that the
Semangat leaders who were former UMNO stalwarts would not be
permitted to jump the queue for key ministries even though they
may be capable. Like everyone else, they must once again earn
their wings as ministers in non-key portfolios first.

This is the first time that Mahathir has taken such a long
leave since becoming premier in 1981. Analysts say that he is, on
the whole, satisfied with the achievements of the government
despite certain shortcomings which he hopes to rectify in the
fine-tuning process. Mahathir has made Anwar Ibrahim the acting
prime minister in his absence. But he will continue to monitor
the deputy premier while overseas. So concerned is Mahathir for a
proper running of the show that he said he would cut short his
leave and return home should matters get out of hand.

Anwar himself has openly stated that he is merely running the
show for Mahathir, and will brief the premier on matters from
time to time and seek his advice as and when necessary through a
hotline.

Last Wednesday Anwar made a major decision by appointing Megat
Junit Ayub to the consumers affairs minister portfolio vacated by
Abu Hassan.

For Anwar who has been in the number two slot for four years,
Mahathir's absence leaving him in charge for two months will be a
real test of his mettle as to whether he is fit to step into the
top spot. If he passes the test with flying colors, then his path
to the next UMNO presidency and Malaysian premiership will be
smooth. Otherwise it will be strewn with obstacles as potential
challengers wait in the wings to take him on in the next UMNO
elections in 1999.

The writer is a freelance journalist based in Singapore.