Mahathir back home to deal with party infighting
By Simon Martin
KUALA LUMPUR (AFP): Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad was due home Tuesday from an overseas vacation, apparently fit and relaxed despite a spate of health rumors, but with pressing political problems to tackle.
A hostile overseas response to the arrest of leading opposition figures, which began the day he left for Argentina on Jan. 12, has abated somewhat.
But analysts say a move to ensure that Mahathir's chosen successor does not face a contest in May ruling party elections has proved a miscalculation and stirred dissent within the United Malays National Organization (UMNO).
On Jan. 4 UMNO's Supreme Council chaired by Mahathir "advised" branches and divisions that the premier and Deputy Premier Abdullah Ahmad Badawi should be nominated unopposed as party president and deputy president on May 11.
Mahathir, 74, says this will be his last term. Abdullah's appointment to the party deputy presidency would confirm his status as heir apparent.
The party polls are sometimes seen as more important than general elections since they determine the leadership of a country ruled since independence in 1957 by the National Front coalition dominated by UMNO.
"There is a lot of unhappiness in UMNO," said an Asian diplomat. "They feel that the (three-yearly leadership) contest is the one chance for members to have their say.
"Abdullah has been set back by the no-contest move. The talk of re-inventing UMNO (after the general election setback last November) is seen as mere lip service."
Michael Leifer, director of the Asia Research Center at the London School of Economics, agreed.
"Abdullah is regarded as the heir apparent...and has the best chance of unifying the party, more than (Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah) or (Defense Minister) Najib Razak," Leifer told AFP.
"But it (the no-contest recommendation) gives the impression he is frightened to test his standing," Leifer said.
"It was a political miscalculation -- Mahathir thinking he can just bulldoze everything."
Mahathir retained a two-thirds majority for his National Front last November. But UMNO lost considerable support among traditional ethnic Malay supporters, mainly to the opposition Parti Islam SeMalaysia.
Leifer said both UMNO and Mahathir had been diminished by the result and Mahathir was "in some difficulty" in the party.
No one expects Mahathir to face any challenge in May. But Leifer said Razaleigh, who almost unseated Mahathir in 1987 party polls before quitting UMNO and then returning to the fold, might try to stand against Abdullah for the deputy presidency.
"He has nothing to lose because he's out in the cold."
The Asian diplomat said there was a "distinct possibility" that Razaleigh, who refuses to confirm or deny any possible challenge, might stand against Abdullah.
Sani Hamid, senior analyst in Singapore with Standard et Poors MMS, said foreign investors were unfazed by the clampdown on the opposition.
"More important to them would be unexpected or unusually large signs of disharmony leading up to the UMNO elections."
An anonymous commentary in Sunday's New Straits Times, seen as very close to the government, accused Razaleigh of trying to split the party.
"The self-styled gurkha (grassroots party worker) has ceased to behave and speak like one," it said.
"Instead, Ku Li (Razaleigh's nickname) now seems to be marshaling his forces for a possible showdown with Abdullah for the number two post."
Leifer termed the arrest of opposition figures "a combination of vindictiveness and intimidation which played into the hands of the opposition."
Four leading opposition figures and the printer of an opposition newspaper have been bailed pending trial -- four for subversion and one under the Official Secrets Act.
The diplomat saw the arrests as a signal both to UMNO and opposition members that force could be used if necessary.
But he thought further arrests were unlikely. "The focus now is all on the UMNO party elections."