Luhut Predicts Iran War Won't End Within One Month, Here's Why!

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Chairman of the National Economic Council (DEN) Luhut Binsar Panjaitan said the war between Iran and the United States as well as Israel is unlikely to be resolved within four weeks or the next month. This was stated by Luhut on his Instagram account @luhutpandjaitan, Thursday (5/3/2026). ‘I see this war will not end in four weeks or the next month, because so many of their leaders have been killed, with no signs of weakening,’ he said. Now, he regards their strikes as having subsided, that’s true. However, Iran’s attacks are not over. If Iran’s weapon systems, ammunition and defensive equipment can be destroyed by the opponent, the war might be contained. Secondly, if a regime change could proceed smoothly, the war would not be protracted. Yet Luhut notes the spirit of the Iranian people when under embargo for almost four decades; they have never wavered. Therefore, when formulating foreign policy or external policy, Indonesia must consider these factors. ‘We must not go to war with them; there’s no use. So as non-alignment, as non-bloc, Indonesia must carefully craft its foreign policy because of its impact on the economy,’ he said. Luhut also assessed that Indonesia’s ‘free and active’ foreign policy remains relevant. Indonesia cannot side with the US and oppose Islamic countries, just as with China and Russia, so non-alignment or non-bloc remains appropriate. ‘Don’t forget that much of the investment in Indonesia comes from China. What about Russia? So non-alignment, non-bloc remains highly relevant,’ he said. ‘So I think the President is sophisticated,’ he asserted. He also highlighted how large Indonesia’s energy reserves are, both gas and oil. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, careful calculation of Indonesia’s strategic oil reserves is required. This should be a government concern. Contingency planning must be prepared well. He urged the Indonesian people to stay united in facing all this. No one should entertain extremist thoughts. Luhut also emphasised that the conflict will persist because the United States will think ten times before sending soldiers to Iran, as there would be many casualties and the American people would surely be angry. Moreover, Luhut fears that if the war continues, China will no longer obtain oil from Iran, Venezuela and Russia. Meanwhile the US wants to control all sources. ‘So this is a global strategic clash that we must observe carefully, and the economic impact on China will be felt; our economy could also be affected,’ he said. He also warned that if oil prices reach US$100 per barrel from the current US$78 per barrel, with Indonesia’s APBN assuming US$70, this would impact government finances. Regarding energy reserves, Luhut has checked. Some say 30 days and some say 18 days. This must be confirmed correctly. Once assessed, the government should move quickly to seek oil import sources and assess the cost and its impact on the APBN. According to Luhut, the government has already sought oil sources, particularly from the US and Venezuela. ‘Venezuela is now also a source of energy for the United States itself. What about African countries, but the problem is sea routes. So this must be examined carefully,’ he said. Luhut urged the government to establish a task force to conduct careful studies for policy responses to these conditions. (haa/haa) Add as a preferred source on Google [Gambas:Video CNBC]