Lower farm produce exports expected

JAKARTA (JP): Exports of agricultural produce are expected to fall this year, while manufactured exports are forecast to show a slight increase, according to an official report.

The report issued by the Ministry of Industry and Trade forecast that crude palm oil (CPO) exports would fall in value by six percent to US$505 million in 1999, from $538 million in 1998. In 1997, CPO exports were worth $1.45 billion.

The report did not speculate on the reasons for this downward trend, however analysts said that CPO producers would cut back on exports if the rupiah gained in strength against the U.S. dollar and the government maintained a 60 percent export tax on the product.

The report also said that natural rubber exports would fall in value by 6.25 percent to $1.5 billion in 1999, compared to $1.6 billion in 1997.

Coffee exports are expected to fall in value by six percent to $478.8 million from $509.85 million last year, while the value of cocoa bean exports is expected to fall to $338.5 million in 1999 from $360.45 million in 1998.

The report forecast that frozen shrimp exports would fall in value to $1.02 billion from $1.08 billion in 1998, while tuna exports would fall in value to $103.5 million from $110.25 million in 1998.

Fruit and vegetable exports are expected to fall in value to $15.2 million and $39.7 million respectively, from $16.2 million and $42.3 million last year.

The report also predicted an increase in the value of exports from the manufacturing sector of the economy.

Exports of textiles and textile products are expected to rise in value by one percent to $7.87 billion in 1999, up from $7.79 billion in 1998.

The increase will be made possible by better management of quotas allocated to registered exporters and progress in the government's efforts to secure the removal of quantitative barriers restricting textile imports in certain countries, the report said.

The United States, the European Union, Canada and Norway are among countries which impose quotas on textile imports.

Exports of processed wood products are expected to increase to $4.43 billion, slightly up on 1998's exports, which were worth $4.39 billion.

Exports of footwear and other leather products were forecast to rise to $1.11 billion in 1999 from $1.1 billion in 1998, while exports of electronic goods were expected to increase to $3.3 billion from $3.26 billion in 1998.

Pulp and paper exports are expected to reach $1.98 billion in 1999, a slight increase from $1.96 billion in 1998.

The government has projected that the country's total exports should increase by 3 percent to $52.3 billion in the 1999/2000 fiscal year, beginning in April, from $50.7 billion this fiscal year. (gis)