Local tour operators expect gloomy business in 1999

JAKARTA (JP): Local tour operators expect another gloomy year ahead as international travelers may consider Indonesia too dangerous to visit in the first half of 1999, an industry executive said on Tuesday.

The Chairman of the Inbound Tour Operators Club (ITOC), Arievaldy Kumarga, said two major political events next year would cause another slow year for the tour operators, who have been suffering the consequences of political turmoil this year.

"It's hard to predict what is going to happen, but it probably will not be any better than 1998, because we still have a political agenda which will make foreign travelers hesitate to visit Indonesia," Arievaldy told a forum on tourism here.

Indonesia is gearing up to hold the first general election and presidential election since the 32-year-long rule of Soeharto ended when he resigned the presidency in May. The general election is to be held in June, while the president will likely be elected by November.

Arievaldy said that what happened in the first six months of next year would shape the fate of the tourist industry for the rest of the year.

"Booking for the peak summer season of between June and November is usually done at the beginning of the year, if tensions leading to the general election heighten, then our hopes of another peak season will fade," he said.

In the past the government allowed the only three political parties to conduct mass street rallies by parading around the main thoroughfares in vehicles in the run-up to the election. This often led to fatal conflicts and disturbances.

The government has yet to announce whether it would allow such massive shows of force for next year's general election, which is expected to be participated in by dozens of political parties.

Arievaldy said the operators have anticipated this by developing destinations where political tensions tend to be less heated than those in Jakarta and several other areas. These include Bali and Lombok, he said.

The tourism sector was badly hit by a series of political upheavals this year, including the fatal May riots, the bloody shooting of student protesters in Jakarta last month and the recent brutal unrests sparked by religious sentiments in Jakarta and other cities.

Arievaldy said members of ITOC reported drops in activity of between 20 and 80 percent this year over 1997.

He said foreign travel agents were considering the exclusion of Indonesia as a destination from their new brochures.

"Some of our foreign partners have started questioning whether it was necessary to put Indonesia in their brochures," he said, adding that this would be a total loss for the country's tourist- related industries.

It is not only inbound tour operating businesses which are suffering, but the outbound travel industry is also in distress, said Meity Robot, head of the Jakarta Chapter of the Association of the Indonesian Tours and Travel Agencies.

Meity said outbound tour operating activities had dropped by 70 to 80 percent.

"Some travel agents have dismissed staff because they have no other way of surviving," Meity said.

The Ministry of Tourism, Arts and Culture said earlier it expected the number of tourist arrivals to fall to 4.6 million foreign visitors from 5.04 million last year.

The Chairman of the Indonesian Hotel and Restaurant Association, Pontjo Sutowo, estimated hotel revenues would drop by 70 to 75 percent in terms of the U.S. dollar this year from last year.

The rupiah's over 65 percent depreciation against the U.S. dollar had forced star-rated hotels, which mostly charge guests in the U.S. currency, to lower room rates by 30 percent this year, he said.

The Chairman of the Indonesia Congress and Convention Association (INCCA), Iqbal Alan Abdullah, said he expected about a 60 percent fall in convention-related activities and a 40 to 50 percent drop in revenues. (das)