List of Regions Affected by El Nino 2026: Risk Map and BMKG Advisory

The El Nino climate phenomenon is once again a serious concern for the Indonesian government and the public in 2026. The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) continues to monitor the dynamics of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which serve as the primary indicator of this phenomenon’s emergence. El Nino, characterised by above-normal warming of sea surface temperatures, directly impacts the reduction of rainfall in Indonesia, triggering risks of prolonged drought, forest and land fires (karhutla), and clean water crises. Entering mid-2026, BMKG has issued an early warning regarding several regions with high vulnerability to the impacts of this climate anomaly. This mapping aims to enable local governments and related sectors, particularly agriculture and energy, to undertake early mitigation measures to suppress economic and social losses. The 2026 El Nino is predicted to have varying intensity across different regions. Generally, this phenomenon causes rain clouds to shift away from Indonesian territory towards the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. As a result, the dry season in Indonesia becomes drier and lasts longer than usual. BMKG emphasises that although El Nino is a global phenomenon, its impact in Indonesia is heavily influenced by local conditions such as the temperature of Indonesian waters (Dipole Mode) and regional topography. Therefore, the severity of the drought will not be uniform across the archipelago. Based on climate monitoring data, the following is a list of regions in Indonesia predicted to experience the most significant impacts from the 2026 El Nino phenomenon: The central and southern parts of Sumatra are the most vulnerable areas. A drastic decrease in rainfall increases the risk of forest and land fires on peatlands. Java, the national food barn, is the most directly affected region in the agricultural sector. A significant decrease in reservoir and river water discharge is predicted. Similar to Sumatra, Kalimantan faces the threat of haze from forest and land fires triggered by extremely dry land conditions. Several parts of Sulawesi and southern Papua are also included in the drought alert zone. El Nino is not merely a problem of hot weather but a threat to the stability of various vital sectors. Facing the 2026 El Nino, synergy between the government and the public is required. El Nino 2026 demands preparedness from all parties. By knowing the list of potentially affected regions, it is hoped that anticipatory measures such as weather modification, food stock management, and strengthening water reserves can be carried out more effectively. BMKG will continue to update information regarding the intensity and duration of this phenomenon to ensure Indonesia can navigate this climate challenge with minimal risk.