Lessons Thailand can learn from Indonesia

Don Pathan, The Nation, Asia News Network/Bangkok

For another eight weeks or so, the government of Indonesia will be taking security even more seriously than usual.

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, speaking at a recent gathering of newspaper editors from Asia and Europe organized by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, said there was something unusual about this time of year -- it's a period when terrorists tend to carry out their hideous acts here in the world's fourth most populous country.

Although there is no specific threat that brought this about warning, according to the International Crisis Group's Sidney Jones, Susilo may have been looking at the pattern of recent attacks.

The Bali bombings occurred in October 2002, then the Marriott Hotel in Jakarta was hit in August 2003, and the Australian Embassy bombed in September last year.

While there is a tendency for people to connect events and anniversaries and make speculation, what is important, Jones said, was the need to underscore that terrorist bombings in Indonesia have been taken place because perpetrators found the opportunity to do so -- not because they were trying to peg them to a certain date.

Certainly, Indonesia has come a long way since the Bali bombings and its progress since then has had more to do with the change of attitude and mindset, than speculation linking events to dates.

Over the past three years, Indonesian authorities have reached out to their counterparts in Australia for technical assistance and advice, and shared information with fellow ASEAN countries.

Jakarta has also arrested more than 200 terrorists on Indonesia soil, putting a big dent on the Jamaah Islamiyah (JI), a jihadi group whose goal is to carve out an Islamic state in the world largest Muslim country, which is known for its religious tolerance.

The downside is that Indonesia's successes are not matched in other states, such as Thailand, where violence in the three southernmost provinces has claimed more than 800 lives since January last year.

Jones said while it was understood that violence in Thailand's Muslim-majority South was a local issue, there was still the possibility that international groups like JI or al-Qaeda could try to exploit the situation, especially if the government of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is perceived to be pitting Buddhists against Muslims.

Nationalism, one must note, has long been Thaksin's favorite card when it comes to dealing with just about everything -- from rounding up political points to handling the violence in the South.

International terrorist experts have pointed to Mindanao in the south of the Philippines, where JI and al-Qaeda have exploited decades of civil war between local Muslim groups and Manila over control of resources.

The Moro Islamic Liberation Front, one of the three separatist movement in the south of the Philippines, has decided to turn its back on JI recruits training in its camps, as it's become clear that having links with major terrorist groups has become more of a liability than an asset, Jones said.

However, many Indonesians were still trying to get to Mindanao, she said because they think it may be safer.

Here, it's now 20 months since scores of Thai Muslims insurgents raided a weapons depot at an army base in Narathiwat, and made off with more than 300 weapons.

A smaller group raided a quarry in Yala the following month, taking with them tonnes of explosive. But Thai security agencies have made little headway in cracking the organizational structure of the insurgents.

Efforts to win the hearts and minds of local residents, meanwhile, appear to have taken a backseat following an exodus of 131 villagers across the border to Malaysia.

The villagers feared retribution from the government for protesting about the shooting last week of a local imam, who they believe was killed by a government agent.

Instead trying to manage the situation diplomatically with Malaysia, Thaksin lashed out at reporters and threw the blame on the fleeing Muslims.

Violence could have been contained and resolved if local people would just decide to work with state agencies and finger the insurgents, he said.

The fact that local communities have for the past month heeded insurgents' demands to shut down their businesses on Fridays should be enough to show Thaksin that the people no longer trust the state to protect them.

While the government may have reason to dismiss outside help for the time being, the continuing attacks should be enough to convince the PM that he is in serious need of a new mindset -- the kind that has brought success in Indonesia.

But Thaksin has continued with his black-and-white approach, seeing the ongoing killing as a simple issue of law and order.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a senior National Security Council officer said that JI members have entered the country to try to recruit insurgents into their network in return for taking on their goal of turning the lower part of Southeast Asia into an Islamic state.

The fact that Thai Muslim insurgents here turned down the offer suggested that the agenda is still very much a local one.

But as Jones noted, the Thai government's current course of action could prove to be a disaster on its own.