Lebanon-Israel Pact Fragile After Hezbollah Vows to Derail It

The latest peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon faces an uncertain future after Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy militant group, vowed to derail its implementation this week. The framework deal signed in Washington details a plan for the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, conditional on the verified disarmament of non-state armed groups, a direct reference to Hezbollah. Under the agreement, the Lebanese army is scheduled to move into areas vacated by Israel to assert state control. The US-mediated deal is the first agreement between the two countries since 1983. A previous pact collapsed due to opposition from various factions in politically and religiously fragmented Lebanon. Admiral Brad Cooper of US Central Command is currently in Lebanon and has met with President Joseph Aoun and Lebanese army commander Rodolphe Haykal to discuss the plan’s execution. However, signs of smooth implementation are minimal. Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Hezbollah’s closest ally in government, warned that the deal would not hold and could potentially spark civil unrest. Hezbollah MP Hussein Al Hajj Hasan delivered a scathing rebuke to the government. ‘What you are doing is a project of discord. You have volunteered on behalf of America and Israel to create this sedition,’ he said. Shortly after the deal was announced, Hezbollah supporters took to the streets and attempted to blockade a major highway in Beirut leading to the airport before being dispersed by the army. The agreement is designed to help the Lebanese government and army overcome Hezbollah’s dominance while marginalising Iran’s role. The US has committed to providing assistance to the Lebanese army, which has long struggled against a better-resourced Hezbollah. Robert Satloff of the Washington Institute noted that the deal’s authors explicitly rejected a legitimate role for Iran in determining Lebanon’s security future. Historically, the Lebanese government has had very little influence over Hezbollah. The group has frequently undermined government decisions and even helped topple administrations it perceived as threats. The latest tensions follow a Hezbollah rocket attack on Israel a day after the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on 28 February, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Israel retaliated with an air and ground campaign to push Hezbollah away from the border to secure communities in northern Israel. The war claimed at least 4,250 lives and displaced one million people. Earlier in 2024, Israel also launched a similar military operation after nearly a year of cross-border fire that occurred in parallel with the war in Gaza. That conflict ended with a ceasefire in November 2024 after Israel succeeded in killing senior Hezbollah officials and degrading their arsenal. Despite fierce opposition from Hezbollah, some cabinet members and political opponents of the group support the deal. Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces, a Christian political party, called the pact the most significant political step in half a century to free Lebanon from the influence of Hezbollah and Iran. Support also came from the Gulf Cooperation Council. The United Arab Emirates expressed its readiness to assist Lebanon economically and socially, a signal of backing from Gulf states for the US-backed president. On the Israeli side, the deal was welcomed but met with scepticism about Lebanon’s ability to fulfil its obligations. Avi Dichter, a member of Netanyahu’s security cabinet, stated that the deal is very frightening for Hezbollah. However, he also warned of the possibility of civil war if the Lebanese government truly chooses to crack down on the militant group.