Lebanon Ceasefire Decisive for US-Iran Peace in Switzerland, Will Israel Halt Aggression?

Amid the electronic signing of a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran last Wednesday, both parties formally ended a war that had lasted more than 100 days. However, the impact of the conflict continues to spread, both regionally and globally, not only in the fields of energy, food, and supply chains, but also touching various strategic issues in the region. Among these issues, the Hezbollah question has now emerged as the final knot hindering the grand bargain. Israel’s ongoing war in Lebanon—which US President Donald Trump referred to as a small war compared to the major war against Iran—has turned into a real obstacle to the continuity of the agreement, especially after Tehran made halting aggression against Lebanon an inseparable condition of any final deal. Amid efforts and hopes to end the war, Trump surprised the world last Tuesday by proposing that handling the Hezbollah issue be handed over to Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who in his view is more capable of doing what Israel failed to do. In the same context, the rebuke Trump directed at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was not solely driven by concern for regional peace and security, but rather to assert his administration’s strategic priority: the deal with Iran comes first, and there is no room for a Lebanese front that could disrupt Washington’s calculations. However, days before Trump’s statement, Damascus had already clarified its strategy in dealing with neighbouring countries. The Syrian President firmly denied any intention to interfere in Lebanon’s affairs, even postponing discussions on border delimitation to prioritise stability.