Latest Survey: Indonesian Public Growing Anxious About Future Economy

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Indonesian consumer confidence in April 2026 remains in the optimistic zone. However, there are signals that warrant attention as public expectations regarding future economic conditions have weakened once again.

Based on Bank Indonesia’s (BI) Consumer Survey released on Monday (11/5/2026), the Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) for April 2026 was recorded at 123.0. This figure rose slightly compared to March 2026, which stood at 122.9.

Consumer confidence in April was primarily supported by an improvement in public perception of the current economic situation. This is reflected in the Current Economic Condition Index (IKE), which rose to 116.5, higher than March 2026’s 115.4.

With this position, Indonesian consumers are generally still optimistic as the IKK remains above the 100 level. In BI’s survey, an index above 100 indicates that consumers are in an optimistic zone.

However, the slight rise in IKK does not fully reflect an even improvement. This is because the consumer expectations component for future economic conditions has once again declined.

Consumer Expectations Continue to Fall

Behind the maintained IKK, the Consumer Expectations Index (IEK) in April 2026 fell to 129.6. This figure is lower than the previous month’s 130.4.

This decline indicates that although consumers remain fairly confident about the current economic situation, their outlook for economic prospects over the next six months or until October 2026 is becoming more cautious.

Pressure on expectations is also evident from its three forming components. Based on BI data, all expectation components weakened in unison in April 2026.

The Income Expectations Index (IEP) fell from 137.7 in March 2026 to 136.9 in April 2026. This means that consumer hopes for income increases over the next six months have slightly tapered off.

A decline also occurred in the Job Availability Expectations Index (IEKLK). This index dropped from 128.0 in March 2026 to 127.7 in April 2026. Although still in the optimistic zone, this weakening shows that consumers are starting to be more cautious in viewing future labour market prospects.

Meanwhile, the most significant weakening occurred in the Business Activity Expectations Index (IEKU). This index fell from 125.5 in March 2026 to 124.1 in April 2026.

Thus, IEKU declined by 1.4 points monthly. This drop is larger than the IEP’s 0.8-point decline and the IEKLK’s 0.3-point decline.

Decline Trend Visible Since Early in the Year

The weakening of consumer expectations is one of the important notes in this survey. Although still at optimistic levels, several expectation indices have been showing continuous declines since early 2026.

The most noticeable decline occurred in the Business Activity Expectations Index (IEKU). In January 2026, IEKU was still at 135.3. However, by April 2026, the index had fallen to 124.1.

This means that in the first four months of 2026, consumer expectations for business activity have dropped by 11.2 points. This serves as a signal that consumers are starting to see future business activity prospects as not as strong as at the beginning of the year.

A similar trend is also seen in income and job expectations. The Income Expectations Index (IEP) fell from 146.0 in January 2026 to 136.9 in April 2026.

Meanwhile, the Job Availability Expectations Index (IEKLK) dropped from 135.1 to 127.7 over the same period.

Consumers Still Optimistic, But More Cautious

Although the expectations component has weakened, all indices remain above the 100 level. This means consumers are still optimistic about future economic conditions.

However, the direction of the decline still needs to be monitored. A decline in expectations could signal that the public is starting to temper optimism amid various uncertainties.

This situation could be influenced by various factors, from price pressures, the rupiah exchange rate still at a weak level, global economic uncertainty, to risks of rising living costs. For consumers, these factors can affect views on income, employment, and future business activity.

Thus, BI’s report this time shows two different sides. On one hand, consumer confidence is still maintained and even rose slightly in April 2026. On the other hand, expectations for future economic conditions continue the downward trend.

In other words, Indonesian consumers have not lost optimism. However, that optimism is now beginning to be overshadowed by a more cautious attitude.