Latest Facts: Trump's War in Iran Backfires, 'Hammering' American Citizens

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The US military conflict in Iran has the potential to impose a massive burden, ultimately harming American citizens as taxpayers. A Harvard academic estimates that the total cost of this war could exceed US1trillion, orapproximatelyRp17, 000trillion(assuminganexchangerateofRp17, 000/US). In the first six days of the joint US-Israel operation that began on 28 February, the Pentagon reported costs reaching US$11.3 billion, or about Rp192.1 trillion. However, this figure is considered not to reflect the actual costs. Linda Bilmes, Professor of Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School, warns that the real costs could be far greater and directly impact US society. “I am certain we will reach US$1 trillion for the Iran war,” Bilmes stated, as quoted by CNBC International on Wednesday (15/4/2026). Although a temporary ceasefire occurred on 8 April, the situation on the ground remains heated. Peace efforts have yet to yield results, and even US forces have increased pressure by initiating a blockade of Iranian ports after negotiations failed. Bilmes explains that the short-term costs of the war could reach US$2 billion per day, or about Rp34 trillion. This is mainly for ammunition, troop deployments, and damage to military assets. One example is the downing of three F-15 fighter jets due to friendly fire. According to her, Pentagon reports tend to underestimate costs by using historical inventory values rather than actual replacement prices, which are much more expensive. “This gap makes the US$11.3 billion figure closer to US$16 billion (Rp272 trillion),” she clarified. Additionally, the cost of replenishing armaments is also under scrutiny. The US must spend around US$4 million (Rp68 billion) per missile interceptor unit, far more expensive than Iran’s drones, which cost only about US$30,000 (Rp510 million). In the long term, the cost burden will swell further. Besides reconstructing military assets and allied infrastructure in the Gulf region, the US government must also cover lifetime disability benefits for around 55,000 of its troops exposed to environmental hazards during their assignments. On the other hand, the White House has proposed increasing the defence budget to US$1.5 trillion (Rp25,500 trillion). This does not include an additional US$200 billion (Rp3,400 trillion) specifically for the Iran war. “Even if not fully approved, it is likely that at least US$100 billion (Rp1,700 trillion) per year will be added to the defence budget due to this war,” Bilmes said. This situation is seen as further pressuring the already high US fiscal deficit. Currently, US public debt has surpassed US$31 trillion (Rp527,000 trillion), far larger than during the Iraq war period. “We are financing this war with more expensive debt, on top of an already very large debt base,” Bilmes stated. “These costs are not just now, but will be passed on to future generations,” she emphasised, noting that the debt interest burden will continue to grow and ultimately be borne by future generations in the US.