Labor migration in Southeast Asia: Analysis, cooperation needed

Labor migration in Southeast Asia: Analysis, cooperation needed

By Charles N. Myers

Migration of people in Southeast Asia has been increasing, with potentially serious implications, but international cooperation on the matter is lacking

SINGAPORE: Cross-border migration of people in Southeast Asia without formalities of passports and visas is not new. It has gone on for centuries. What is new is that economic incentives for migration are now stronger, numbers are increasing and potential consequences are more far-reaching. Information, analysis and international cooperation on the issue -- in contrast -- lag far behind.

The economies of Southeast Asia are dynamic and complementary. They are complementary because they are different. And among the differences are large disparities in labor supply, demand and wages; worker education and skills; population densities and natural resource endowments. These differences create strong incentives on both the demand and supply side for migration.

In addition, the countries in mainland Southeast Asia share long borders and histories of past migrations. The border of Vietnam with Laos and Cambodia and of Thailand with Myanmar are together longer than the border between the U.S. and Mexico. The U.S. spends tens of millions of dollars a year to reduce migration across this border to almost no effect despite the use of all manner of high-tech gadgets and the fact that the terrain is much more open than the tropical rain forests of Southeast Asia.

The borders in mainland Southeast Asia cannot be controlled. With strong incentives, migration is and will be extensive and inevitable.

All countries will soon be members of ASEAN and AFTA with borders becoming more open to movement of capital, goods, and labor. But for the reasons already mentioned the borders are, of course, already "open" to migration of labor.

The principal net "importers" of foreign workers are Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore.

There are an estimated 700,000 to one million foreign workers in Thailand and two million in Malaysia. The principal net "exporters" of workers are Indonesia, Myanmar, the Philippines and Vietnam. Except for the limited legal flows, these "imports" and "exports" are not a matter of policy. But they are a matter of fact. Cambodia and Laos are probably net "importers" also, but there is not enough information to know for sure.

This migration meets three basic tests for identification as a critical ASEAN/AFTA issue: it is large and growing and will grow further with Mekong river development and other infrastructure investments; it is increasingly perceived as important by most if not all of the countries; and it inevitably requires international cooperation on fact-finding, analysis and policy.

The issue is also a sensitive one. It touches on concerns about national security, trafficking and mistreatment, and public health including HIV/AIDS and drugs. Both sending and receiving countries have reacted at various times with attempted controls, employer sanctions, alternating with tacit approval or indifference, with occasional amnesties in return for temporary work permits, with incentives for repatriation or forced repatriations.

In short, this is a "hard" issue and special challenge for ASEAN and AFTA. It is hard because it is sensitive, because it will be difficult to find policies to satisfy both sending and receiving countries, and because migration may delay structural transformation of the receiving economies.

So far there has been relatively little good analysis of this migration. Mainly there have been single-country studies done by national research institutes, by the International Labor Organization, and complied by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

Surely, this is the place where enhanced international cooperation on the issue should focus. Good policy cannot be made without good information, analysis and thought. Policy researchers in sending and receiving countries should work together to improve the information base, analyze consequences, and develop policy options. More single-country studies would not be useful.

Most, if not all, the countries share four common interests that could shape the agenda for information gathering, analysis, and policy recommendations: first that there be a better understanding of the magnitudes and directions of flows, and of migrant and employer behavior; second, that the flows should be mutually beneficial, alleviating real labor shortages in receiving countries and generating skills and remittances for the sending country; third, that there is more transparency and fair treatment of migrants, and fourth, that in the longer-term there is a consistent pattern of regulations and incentives either to induce repatriation or -- where necessary -- to facilitate settlement and integration.

Collaborative research on the issue should thus include data gathering and analysis of at least some of the following:

* flows, sources, numbers, gender and employment sector of departure and destination;

* employer behavior: recruitment, wages, benefits, working conditions job duration or security;

* migrant characteristics and behavior: education attainment, job skills, wages, remittances, repatriation;

* impacts on the sending country: reduction in surplus labor, brain drain, remittances and investment and other behavior of returnees, growth and poverty consequences;

* impacts on receiving countries: growth, income distribution and poverty consequences, persistence of sunset export sectors and industries.

The work should be low key because of sensitivities, and concentrated on building the factual and analytic base and suggesting some policy options. Without this kind of work, there is the danger that governments will make unilateral decisions that will not be sensible, effective or enhance cooperation among the countries concerned. This is a "test" issue for ASEAN and AFTA. It will not go away. Institutions and analysts in the ASEAN countries can and should meet this test.

Dr. Charles N. Myers is Sr. Coordinator, SHD Resource Facility, United Nations Development Programme, Bangkok.