Labor migration in Southeast Asia: Analysis, cooperation needed

Labor migration in Southeast Asia: Analysis, cooperation needed

By Charles N. Myers

Migration of people in Southeast Asia has been increasing,
with potentially serious implications, but international
cooperation on the matter is lacking

SINGAPORE: Cross-border migration of people in Southeast Asia
without formalities of passports and visas is not new. It has
gone on for centuries. What is new is that economic incentives
for migration are now stronger, numbers are increasing and
potential consequences are more far-reaching. Information,
analysis and international cooperation on the issue -- in contrast
-- lag far behind.

The economies of Southeast Asia are dynamic and complementary.
They are complementary because they are different. And among the
differences are large disparities in labor supply, demand and
wages; worker education and skills; population densities and
natural resource endowments. These differences create strong
incentives on both the demand and supply side for migration.

In addition, the countries in mainland Southeast Asia share
long borders and histories of past migrations. The border of
Vietnam with Laos and Cambodia and of Thailand with Myanmar are
together longer than the border between the U.S. and Mexico. The
U.S. spends tens of millions of dollars a year to reduce
migration across this border to almost no effect despite the use
of all manner of high-tech gadgets and the fact that the terrain
is much more open than the tropical rain forests of Southeast
Asia.

The borders in mainland Southeast Asia cannot be controlled.
With strong incentives, migration is and will be extensive and
inevitable.

All countries will soon be members of ASEAN and AFTA with
borders becoming more open to movement of capital, goods, and
labor. But for the reasons already mentioned the borders are, of
course, already "open" to migration of labor.

The principal net "importers" of foreign workers are Thailand,
Malaysia and Singapore.

There are an estimated 700,000 to one million foreign workers
in Thailand and two million in Malaysia. The principal net
"exporters" of workers are Indonesia, Myanmar, the Philippines
and Vietnam. Except for the limited legal flows, these "imports"
and "exports" are not a matter of policy. But they are a matter
of fact. Cambodia and Laos are probably net "importers" also, but
there is not enough information to know for sure.

This migration meets three basic tests for identification as a
critical ASEAN/AFTA issue: it is large and growing and will grow
further with Mekong river development and other infrastructure
investments; it is increasingly perceived as important by most if
not all of the countries; and it inevitably requires
international cooperation on fact-finding, analysis and policy.

The issue is also a sensitive one. It touches on concerns
about national security, trafficking and mistreatment, and public
health including HIV/AIDS and drugs. Both sending and receiving
countries have reacted at various times with attempted controls,
employer sanctions, alternating with tacit approval or
indifference, with occasional amnesties in return for temporary
work permits, with incentives for repatriation or forced
repatriations.

In short, this is a "hard" issue and special challenge for
ASEAN and AFTA. It is hard because it is sensitive, because it
will be difficult to find policies to satisfy both sending and
receiving countries, and because migration may delay structural
transformation of the receiving economies.

So far there has been relatively little good analysis of this
migration. Mainly there have been single-country studies done by
national research institutes, by the International Labor
Organization, and complied by the Institute of Southeast Asian
Studies in Singapore.

Surely, this is the place where enhanced international
cooperation on the issue should focus. Good policy cannot be made
without good information, analysis and thought. Policy
researchers in sending and receiving countries should work
together to improve the information base, analyze consequences,
and develop policy options. More single-country studies would not
be useful.

Most, if not all, the countries share four common interests
that could shape the agenda for information gathering, analysis,
and policy recommendations: first that there be a better
understanding of the magnitudes and directions of flows, and of
migrant and employer behavior; second, that the flows should be
mutually beneficial, alleviating real labor shortages in
receiving countries and generating skills and remittances for the
sending country; third, that there is more transparency and fair
treatment of migrants, and fourth, that in the longer-term there
is a consistent pattern of regulations and incentives either to
induce repatriation or -- where necessary -- to facilitate
settlement and integration.

Collaborative research on the issue should thus include data
gathering and analysis of at least some of the following:

* flows, sources, numbers, gender and employment sector of
departure and destination;

* employer behavior: recruitment, wages, benefits, working
conditions job duration or security;

* migrant characteristics and behavior: education attainment,
job skills, wages, remittances, repatriation;

* impacts on the sending country: reduction in surplus labor,
brain drain, remittances and investment and other behavior of
returnees, growth and poverty consequences;

* impacts on receiving countries: growth, income distribution
and poverty consequences, persistence of sunset export sectors
and industries.

The work should be low key because of sensitivities, and
concentrated on building the factual and analytic base and
suggesting some policy options. Without this kind of work, there
is the danger that governments will make unilateral decisions
that will not be sensible, effective or enhance cooperation among
the countries concerned. This is a "test" issue for ASEAN and
AFTA. It will not go away. Institutions and analysts in the ASEAN
countries can and should meet this test.

Dr. Charles N. Myers is Sr. Coordinator, SHD Resource
Facility, United Nations Development Programme, Bangkok.