Koizumi scores well on N. Korea, faces test on Iraq

Koizumi scores well on N. Korea, faces test on Iraq

Linda Sieg, Reuters, Tokyo

A foreign policy novice who once summed up his diplomatic
platform in a single sentence, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi surprised his critics with a high-risk, high-return
strategy toward North Korea.

But Koizumi faces an even tougher diplomatic test if and when
the United States launches an attack on Iraq.

"If the United States decides to go in, we'll be in an even
more difficult situation than in the Gulf War," Yukio Okamoto, a
foreign policy adviser to Koizumi, told Reuters.

Japan, eager to avoid a repeat of the diplomatic humiliation
it suffered after giving cash but failing to send even a token
force to the Gulf War in 1991, last year passed a law allowing it
to deploy naval ships to support the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan.

But the bulk of Japanese voters oppose any unilateral U.S.
military move against Iraq, and Tokyo's armed forces remain
fettered by the nation's pacifist constitution.

Japan is keeping close tabs on the UN Security Council as it
ponders its options. "If there is an international framework for
Japan to act, it will make Mr. Koizumi's decision easier, i.e.,
the adoption of a new UN resolution," Okamoto said.

Koizumi, swept to power in April 2001 pledging economic and
political reform, was once dismissed as a diplomatic lightweight.

"With friendly Japan-U.S. ties as the cornerstone of diplomacy
and security, I plan to deepen friendship and improve ties with
neighboring countries," read the one sentence on diplomacy in his
platform as candidate for ruling party chief.

His shock decision to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in
Pyongyang last month, seemingly without close prior consultation
with Washington, altered that image.

The summit pried an unexpected apology from Kim over the
abductions of Japanese citizens by North Korean agents and an
agreement to resume talks on establishing diplomatic ties.

A first round of those talks will be held in Kuala Lumpur on
Oct. 29-30.

The Pyongyang summit also paved the way for U.S. envoy James
Kelly to visit North Korea, which Bush has dubbed part of an
"axis of evil" along with Iraq and Iran.

Washington's next step remains unclear, but diplomatic experts
said the two allies were taking complementary approaches to North
Korea as it emerges from its Cold War isolation.

"The priority for Washington is Iraq, but our priority is
North Korea," said Satoshi Morimoto, a former diplomat and now a
professor at Takushoku University.

"It is a jointly coordinated approach. The United States
intends to win in Iraq and Japan intends to hold North Korea."

Despite talk of a more independent diplomatic posture with
Koizumi at the helm, analysts said Japan would feel heavy
pressure to support a U.S. military offensive against Iraq.

"If America attacks Iraq, Japan will be in a pinch," said Keio
University professor Tomoyuki Kojima. "It will have only one
choice -- to provide the same level of support as for
Afghanistan. The question is whether it can actually do that."

Heated debate on the topic is likely when a new session of
parliament opens on Friday, given a consensus that last year's
legislation enabling support for the U.S. war in Afghanistan
cannot be applied to an attack on Iraq.

"The minimum requirement is a UN Security Council resolution,
otherwise it is very difficult to pass new legislation to allow
Japan to do something...in substance," former diplomat Morimoto
said.

"Even if we do (have a UN resolution), it is still very
difficult."

Koizumi, never one to tip his hand too early, is weighing his
options. "What will Mr. Koizumi do? He has not made up his mind,"
foreign policy adviser Okamoto said.