Koizumi scores well on N. Korea, faces test on Iraq

Koizumi scores well on N. Korea, faces test on Iraq

Linda Sieg, Reuters, Tokyo

A foreign policy novice who once summed up his diplomatic platform in a single sentence, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi surprised his critics with a high-risk, high-return strategy toward North Korea.

But Koizumi faces an even tougher diplomatic test if and when the United States launches an attack on Iraq.

"If the United States decides to go in, we'll be in an even more difficult situation than in the Gulf War," Yukio Okamoto, a foreign policy adviser to Koizumi, told Reuters.

Japan, eager to avoid a repeat of the diplomatic humiliation it suffered after giving cash but failing to send even a token force to the Gulf War in 1991, last year passed a law allowing it to deploy naval ships to support the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan.

But the bulk of Japanese voters oppose any unilateral U.S. military move against Iraq, and Tokyo's armed forces remain fettered by the nation's pacifist constitution.

Japan is keeping close tabs on the UN Security Council as it ponders its options. "If there is an international framework for Japan to act, it will make Mr. Koizumi's decision easier, i.e., the adoption of a new UN resolution," Okamoto said.

Koizumi, swept to power in April 2001 pledging economic and political reform, was once dismissed as a diplomatic lightweight.

"With friendly Japan-U.S. ties as the cornerstone of diplomacy and security, I plan to deepen friendship and improve ties with neighboring countries," read the one sentence on diplomacy in his platform as candidate for ruling party chief.

His shock decision to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang last month, seemingly without close prior consultation with Washington, altered that image.

The summit pried an unexpected apology from Kim over the abductions of Japanese citizens by North Korean agents and an agreement to resume talks on establishing diplomatic ties.

A first round of those talks will be held in Kuala Lumpur on Oct. 29-30.

The Pyongyang summit also paved the way for U.S. envoy James Kelly to visit North Korea, which Bush has dubbed part of an "axis of evil" along with Iraq and Iran.

Washington's next step remains unclear, but diplomatic experts said the two allies were taking complementary approaches to North Korea as it emerges from its Cold War isolation.

"The priority for Washington is Iraq, but our priority is North Korea," said Satoshi Morimoto, a former diplomat and now a professor at Takushoku University.

"It is a jointly coordinated approach. The United States intends to win in Iraq and Japan intends to hold North Korea."

Despite talk of a more independent diplomatic posture with Koizumi at the helm, analysts said Japan would feel heavy pressure to support a U.S. military offensive against Iraq.

"If America attacks Iraq, Japan will be in a pinch," said Keio University professor Tomoyuki Kojima. "It will have only one choice -- to provide the same level of support as for Afghanistan. The question is whether it can actually do that."

Heated debate on the topic is likely when a new session of parliament opens on Friday, given a consensus that last year's legislation enabling support for the U.S. war in Afghanistan cannot be applied to an attack on Iraq.

"The minimum requirement is a UN Security Council resolution, otherwise it is very difficult to pass new legislation to allow Japan to do something...in substance," former diplomat Morimoto said.

"Even if we do (have a UN resolution), it is still very difficult."

Koizumi, never one to tip his hand too early, is weighing his options. "What will Mr. Koizumi do? He has not made up his mind," foreign policy adviser Okamoto said.