Key US and China Data to Drive Markets This Week
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – As the first week of June 2026 begins, market participants will monitor key macroeconomic data releases from both domestic and international sources. Additionally, strategic domestic policy implementations and global geopolitical dynamics warrant attention. Here is a summary of market-moving data and sentiment for the week.
China’s Manufacturing PMI May 2026
China’s Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 51.8 in May 2026 from a five-year high of 52.2 in April, but remained above the consensus forecast of 51.4. New orders and production growth moderated but remained in expansion territory, supported by domestic demand, new customer acquisitions, and product line expansions, while export orders saw a slight decline. Factory output rose solidly, among the highest since late 2024. Employment contracted marginally, and supplier delivery times extended for the third consecutive month amid higher input purchases. Production cost pressures began to ease during the period.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI May 2026
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.7 in April 2026, matching its highest level since August 2022 but below the market expectation of 53.0. New orders grew faster at 54.1 compared to March’s 53.5, while supplier delivery times lengthened to 60.6 and production expanded at a slower pace of 53.4. Employment levels fell sharply to 46.4 from 48.7, the steepest drop in four months. Prices surged at the fastest rate since late 2021, driven by rising oil and diesel costs due to Middle East conflicts. Sentiment among panelists varied as the conflict entered its second month, with 31% positive comments and 69% negative. Geopolitical tensions were mentioned in 47% of responses, while tariff issues accounted for 18%. For May 2026’s release, market consensus expects the ISM Manufacturing PMI to range between 52.6 and 53.0.
Indonesia’s Inflation May 2026
Indonesia’s annual inflation fell significantly to 2.42% in April 2026 from 3.48% the previous month, marking the lowest level since August 2025 and comfortably within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 1.5% to 3.5%. The moderation was driven by slower price growth in key components, particularly food at 3.06% compared to March’s 3.34%, and housing at 0.74% versus 7.24%. Healthcare inflation remained stable at 1.49% and education at 1.14%. Some categories faced stronger price pressures, including clothing at 0.79%, furniture at 0.60%, transport at 1.61%, recreation at 1.19%, and restaurants at 1.93%. Communications prices rebounded to 0.83%. Core inflation eased to 2.44% from March’s 2.52%, the softest in four months. Monthly consumer prices rose 0.13%. For May 2026’s release, market consensus expects inflation to range around 3.1%.
Indonesia’s Trade Balance April 2026
Indonesia’s trade surplus fell to $3.32 billion in March 2026 from $4.33 billion a year earlier, driven by declining exports and rising imports. Imports grew 1.51% year-on-year, slowing from February’s 10.85%, with oil and gas imports rising 1.34% to $3.17 billion. Non-oil and gas imports increased 1.54% to $16.04 billion. Exports fell 3.1% year-on-year, the first decline since November last year amid global logistics disruptions. Non-oil and gas exports dropped 2.52%, while oil and gas exports plummeted 11.84% due to sharp declines in crude oil and refined products. By destination, non-oil and gas exports declined to major partners like the US, India, and the EU, but surged 16.22% to China. For Q1 2026, Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of $5.55 billion. April 2026 trade data is projected at $0.5 billion.
Eurozone Inflation May 2026
Eurozone annual inflation was confirmed at 3.0% in April 2026, the highest since September 2023 and significantly above the European Central Bank’s 2.0% target. Energy prices surged 10.8%, the sharpest rise since February 2023. Non-energy industrial goods inflation rose 0.8% and unprocessed food inflation increased 4.6%. Services inflation slowed to 3.0%, while processed food, alcohol, and tobacco rose 1.6%. Core inflation eased to 2.2% from 2.3%. Among major eurozone economies, inflation accelerated in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain but moderated in the Netherlands. For May 2026’s reading, consensus expects Eurozone inflation to reach 3.3% to 3.4%.
US Job Openings (JOLTS) April 2026
US job openings fell by 56,000 to 6.866 million in March 2026, slightly above market expectations of 6.84 million. Job openings decreased in professional and business services by 318,000 but rose in the financial sector.