Keeping to ASEAN's 'rules of the game'

Keeping to ASEAN's 'rules of the game'

Vietnam's membership and the likely entry of Cambodia, Laos and
Myanmar bring certain challenges to ASEAN.

By Hoang Anh Tuan

After decades of competing with ASEAN in establishing a
regional order, Vietnam finally joined the regional organization
in July 1995. As ASEAN is an established grouping, Vietnam's
entry into it means that Hanoi has agreed to accept the norms and
rules of the game set by the association.

However, as Vietnam accepts ASEAN's rules of the game, other
members have to make adjustments to the new member. Furthermore,
as ASEAN intends to expand to incorporate all countries of South-
east Asia in order to cope with the changing regional order in
the post-Cold War era, these changes in the workings, functions
and organization of ASEAN will take a few years to work
themselves out, as compared with the stability ASEAN experienced
since its inception in 1967, with only a small change in 1984,
when Brunei became a member.

As for Vietnam, it has warmed to ASEAN since Hanoi officially
endorsed the renovation policy or doi moi in 1986. Vietnam's
signing of the Bali Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in 1992 was
another indication that Vietnam pledged to observe the regional
status quo and accept the ground rules for regional order set by
the ASEAN countries.

These gestures of goodwill were the initial and necessary
steps required for Vietnam to become an official member of ASEAN.
Since joining ASEAN in 1995, Vietnam has, in the words of Foreign
Minister Nguyen Manh Cam, undertaken "to fulfill all obligations
and responsibilities of a member country according to the
targets, objectives, principles and documents and regulations
that have been clearly specified in the ASEAN basic documents,
including its joining in AFTA".

Thus, as part of ASEAN, Vietnam -- aside from observing and
undertaking responsibilities required of a member -- will have to
learn more about "ASEAN togetherness"; the ASEAN spirit of
settling disputes; the tradition of give-and-take; and mushawarah
and mufakat (consultation and consensus). This will not only
require time and great effort from Vietnam in its bilateral and
multilateral relations, but will also affect the speed of the
association's expansion.

In nearly three decades of existence and development, ASEAN
members have developed codes of conduct in settling
contradictions and disputes, according to which political and
economic problems have been resolved through established
guidelines and mutual consultations. Consultation and consensus-
building is considered one of ASEAN's strengths and, where views
have differed, member-states have agreed to disagree or to put
aside issues for resolution at a later time.

In the post-Cold War era, ASEAN should continue to consolidate
the norms and rules of the game, and seek consensus among members
on major regional security and economic issues such as taking the
lead in setting the agenda for the ASEAN Regional Forum; settling
the contending claims to the Spratly Islands; and promoting
economic cooperation in the form of AFTA, in order to have a
strong voice heard in regional and international affairs.

In such activities, ASEAN would be seen to expand its own
political and economic base for other countries in Southeast Asia
to join the grouping eventually. Vietnam's entry is seen as a
positive step for the future integration of Cambodia, Laos and
Myanmar before the turn of the century.

However, the expansion of membership brings with it problems.
ASEAN-6 had already found it difficult to reach consensus on
major issues, such as on how far and quickly to implement the
Preferential Trade Agreements. These discussions hindered ASEAN
economic cooperation in the 1970s and 1980s. The varying
perceptions of China in the early 1980s, specially with regard to
diametrically opposed positions between Malaysia and Indonesia,
on the one hand, and Thailand, on the other, are bound to
continue to occupy a prominent place in the evolution of ASEAN.

This does not mean that the consensual modus operandi which
helped to cohere ASEAN members in the past is likely to be
replaced soon. Neither should it necessarily be linked to
Vietnam's entry into ASEAN. Such changes will certainly come
along, sooner or later, and ASEAN members might have to
facilitate this operational reality.

The difficulties associated with enlarged membership become
clear if one takes the example of Vietnam becoming a part of the
AFTA process. Because of the gap in economic development between
Vietnam and other members, and the fact that AFTA has already
been agreed upon and implemented by members since Jan. 1, 1993,
ASEAN has unanimously agreed that Vietnam would fulfill the goals
enshrined in AFTA by the year 2006, instead of 2003 as for the
other ASEAN countries.

Thus, by extension, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar should be
allowed to fulfill the goals of AFTA at a later time, probably
2010, once they become members of ASEAN. But are the ASEAN
members willing to allow this? And if so, how can all ASEAN
members seek consensus on future economic issues, while some have
maximized the goals of AFTA and want to turn to the next stage of
economic cooperation, and others have not and are not willing to
do so?

The suggestion of lack of accord by ASEAN members is similarly
evident when we consider the Spratlys dispute between China and
some ASEAN countries. While the ASEAN claimants would want to
gain strong support from the association, non-claimant ASEAN
states do not attach a high priority to this issue in their
foreign policy agenda. Unless there is a clear and immediate
direct threat, which is unlikely over the next 10 or 15 years to
the national security of any particular member, it is difficult
to attain a clear position from ASEAN on the issue.

Acknowledging these apparent difficulties of an expanding
organization and dealing with them by adapting the organization
to make it more flexible, and making the rules of the game more
transparent, would help ASEAN cope with the challenges ahead.

Hoang Anh Tuan is a Research Fellow at the Institute of Southeast
Asian Studies, Singapore.