Kaleidoscope of Information Technology trends of 1998

Kaleidoscope of Information Technology trends of 1998

JAKARTA (JP): How many differences can a human year bring?
Well, these days we should probably be talking about the Internet
year rather than the ordinary calendar year, because computer and
communication technologies move so fast that a dog year is
definitely too slow moving.

What was hot in 1998? First of all, LCD flat panel monitors
became much more popular than in 1997. Their prices came down
significantly, too, although they are still too expensive for
mere mortals like you and me. Princeton DPP 500, a "good value"
14-inch LCD monitor, still costs about US$849. Compare that to a
15-inch Sony monitor, which would cost only $229 in the U.S.

DVD has generally caught up, and even a $1,500 system now
comes with a DVD-ROM drive. Now that you can play back movies
stored on DVD-ROMs, you may want to be able to burn your own
disk. That must have been the reasoning of Hitachi as they began
to market their GF 1050 DVD-RAM that will allow you to write up
to 5,2 GB of digital data to a single platter.

When talking about PCs and their development, it's impossible
not to talk about Intel Corp., the company that constantly has
pushed the bar on processor speed and features. Intel started
1998 with the introduction of Pentium II 333 MHz, followed by
Pentium Mobile 166 and 266 MHz with MMX Technology for notebooks.

Throughout the rest of the year Intel introduced its new
Celeron line of processors with speeds of 266, 300 and 333 MHz,
Pentium II 350, 400 and 450 MHz, Pentium II Xeon 400 and 450 MHz
for servers and high-end workstations, and finally Pentium II
Mobile 266 and 300 MHz for notebook computers.

The latest Pentium II processors are clearly intended for
those who demand computing power and have the resources to
acquire it. For many ordinary people, the cheaper is still the
better. Although lower prices generally mean some compromises
have to be made, people are willing to take the chance. So over
the year, under-$1,000 PCs became under-$600 PCs. A Taiwan-made
PC that you could buy for $399 (without the monitor, of course)
will still give you more than adequate performance to run common
productivity software.

AMD, which has been trotting in Intel's shadow, also launched
in 1998 its new generation of K6 processors, which was called the
K6-2. The new processors, with 3D-Now! Technology, became popular
faster than the company could pump up its production capacity.

Only now could it supply enough chips to meet the demands of
computer buyers who don't really care about the "Intel Inside"
security blanket.

In 1998, the Internet became even more important, there's no
question about that. As the people at Cisco Systems always say,
Internet has changed the way we live, work, learn, shop,
communicate, get entertained and what have you. The problem with
Internet is that the connection via modem is still too slow,
although the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) finally
ratified one single standard for 56K dial-up connection in 1998.
Asymmetric Subscriber Digital Line (ASDL) was what people began
to dream of enjoying in 1998, and it was becoming available in
some areas in the U.S., giving the lucky subscribers a transfer
rate 17 times higher than the 56K modem. ASDL's strongest
contender is cable TV, which is also becoming widely available
over there.

Being able to compute on the road usually used to mean that
you would have to tote around your notebook. Some companies have
long realized that people don't normally consider carrying around
a 3.4 kg computer as an effective way to exercise their shoulder
and arm muscles. So, throughout 1998 we saw new generations of
palmtop personal digital assistants (PDAs) from 3Com, NEC,
Phillips and Hewlett Packard appearing on the market.

Microsoft also made significant improvements on its Windows CE
operating system, and the CE 2.0 won a lot of nods from
critiques. As the year draws to an end, Windows CE palmtop
computers have also grown into subnotebooks, the most notable of
which is Jornada from HP.

Let's rewind a bit and go back to June 25, when giant
Microsoft launched the controversial Windows 98. Despite the
brouhaha from skeptics who tried to emphasize the fact that the
new operating system was incrementally and not revolutionary
different from its predecessor, the public eventually realized
that it did run applications noticeably faster. Over time, people
seem to have agreed now that the upgrade was worth waiting for.
That does not mean that the antitrust case against Microsoft is
nullified, though.

Storage device also made some progress in 1998. With so much
to download from the Web, you will always need ample hard disk
space to store the pictures, video and audio, and therefore
larger hard disks were also the highlight of 1998. Recently IBM
introduced its largest hard disk ever, the Deskstar 25GP. This
hard disk can hold up to 25 GB of data, 5,000 times more than the
first hard disk built 42 years ago (IBM made the first hard disk
in 1956, and the capacity was 5 MB).

1998 also saw the advent of USB peripherals, Advanced Graphics
Processor-based video graphics subsystems, and the 100 MHz
processor bus.

On the programming side, Java and Jini from Sun Microsystems
continued to gain more followers. An interesting alternative to
Microsoft Windows operating system also gained momentum this
year. Called Linux, it is basically a Unix operating system for
386, 486 and Pentium PCs. It was created by Linus Torwalds
together with a bunch of Internet hackers, and it became very
popular in a very short period of time because of its
multitasking, TCP/IP networking and other capabilities and
because, especially, it is free.

Voice recognition also became more and more important
especially because the new, more powerful processors do speed up
the recognition process tremendously (don't try out any voice
recognition program if you only have a Pentium 90 MHz machine).

Clearly, one of the most promising uses of voice recognition
is in the car. Indeed, Microsoft, IBM and Intel have their own
versions of PCs that will be integrated with the interior of your
next car. Did I say "Next"? It must be a mistake, as Clarion
already sells a PC that you can install in the dashboard of your
current car.

Finally, a review of the computer panorama in 1998 would be
incomplete without mention of the iMac. The latest masterpiece of
Steve Jobs, this Mac computer really makes your mouth start to
water.

It's pretty, and it's as user-friendly as you'd expect a Mac
to be. For just $1,299, Apple will give you a sexy computer
complete with a fast CD-ROM drive, a 56K modem, a 4 GB hard disk,
32 MB of RAM, built-in stereo speakers and a fast G3 processor.
No wonder the iMac saved Apple from bankruptcy.

What was out in 1998? Clearly, the concept of Network Computer
(NC) or NetPC that was so strongly pushed in 1997 was completely
out of the scene. People's interest in them simply disappeared
into thin air. The reason? Most probably the arrival of under-
$600 PCs.

And what about next year? First and foremost I can see that
Windows CE-based subnotebooks will be in. These notebooks will
not have as many features as, for instance, a ThinkPad i Series,
but people will be as happy working with them because they can
use these minimalist computers to type documents, do some
spreadsheet manipulation and access the Internet without the
excess weight. Remember that for Windows CE machines, Microsoft
has already prepared Pocket Word, Pocket Excel and Pocket
Internet Explorer. These Windows CE applications use the same
file format as the full version Microsoft Office, and the
subnotebooks will give you up to 10 hours of battery life. What
else could you need when you're away from your desktop?

Besides Windows CE subnotebooks there will be more thin and
lightweight notebooks for those who cannot live without a larger
screen and a full-sized keyboard.

In the first quarter of 1999 Intel will launch the 500 MHz
Katmai processor to counter AMD K7. Toward the end of the year,
the Merced IA-64 processor, the fruit of a four-year cooperation
between Intel and Hewlett-Packard, may finally hit the shelves.
All of this will happen as the under-$500 PCs become more and
more widely available. People will buy them as a second or third
PC for their family or their home-based businesses.

Wireless Internet access, most probably using CDMA cellular
technology that frightened my friend Oswaldo Coelho, will also
pick up. Home PCs will get networked as connecting them to each
other as well as to other home appliances will become easier.
Internet telephony will also gain ground, despite telecom
monopolies desperate effort to block it. While smart cards -- the
cards with an embedded microchip -- will be used in more places
and for a wider range of purposes, wearable computers will remain
an expensive toy.

Finally, investment in IT may not be as aggressive as it has
been up to now -- except when it comes to implementing Enterprise
Resource Planning (ERPs) systems such as SAP's R/3 or enterprise
management such as CA's Unicenter TNG and IBM's Tivoli
Enterprise. People will try to maximize the utilization of their
investments rather than acquiring new hardware and software.

Now, let's see whether my predictions will be way off the
mark. See you in a similar article in December 1999, as we ponder
whether or not the Year 2000 Bug will indeed herald the end of
the world.

-- Zatni Arbi