Kaleidoscope of Information Technology trends of 1998

JAKARTA (JP): How many differences can a human year bring? Well, these days we should probably be talking about the Internet year rather than the ordinary calendar year, because computer and communication technologies move so fast that a dog year is definitely too slow moving.

What was hot in 1998? First of all, LCD flat panel monitors became much more popular than in 1997. Their prices came down significantly, too, although they are still too expensive for mere mortals like you and me. Princeton DPP 500, a "good value" 14-inch LCD monitor, still costs about US$849. Compare that to a 15-inch Sony monitor, which would cost only $229 in the U.S.

DVD has generally caught up, and even a $1,500 system now comes with a DVD-ROM drive. Now that you can play back movies stored on DVD-ROMs, you may want to be able to burn your own disk. That must have been the reasoning of Hitachi as they began to market their GF 1050 DVD-RAM that will allow you to write up to 5,2 GB of digital data to a single platter.

When talking about PCs and their development, it's impossible not to talk about Intel Corp., the company that constantly has pushed the bar on processor speed and features. Intel started 1998 with the introduction of Pentium II 333 MHz, followed by Pentium Mobile 166 and 266 MHz with MMX Technology for notebooks.

Throughout the rest of the year Intel introduced its new Celeron line of processors with speeds of 266, 300 and 333 MHz, Pentium II 350, 400 and 450 MHz, Pentium II Xeon 400 and 450 MHz for servers and high-end workstations, and finally Pentium II Mobile 266 and 300 MHz for notebook computers.

The latest Pentium II processors are clearly intended for those who demand computing power and have the resources to acquire it. For many ordinary people, the cheaper is still the better. Although lower prices generally mean some compromises have to be made, people are willing to take the chance. So over the year, under-$1,000 PCs became under-$600 PCs. A Taiwan-made PC that you could buy for $399 (without the monitor, of course) will still give you more than adequate performance to run common productivity software.

AMD, which has been trotting in Intel's shadow, also launched in 1998 its new generation of K6 processors, which was called the K6-2. The new processors, with 3D-Now! Technology, became popular faster than the company could pump up its production capacity.

Only now could it supply enough chips to meet the demands of computer buyers who don't really care about the "Intel Inside" security blanket.

In 1998, the Internet became even more important, there's no question about that. As the people at Cisco Systems always say, Internet has changed the way we live, work, learn, shop, communicate, get entertained and what have you. The problem with Internet is that the connection via modem is still too slow, although the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) finally ratified one single standard for 56K dial-up connection in 1998. Asymmetric Subscriber Digital Line (ASDL) was what people began to dream of enjoying in 1998, and it was becoming available in some areas in the U.S., giving the lucky subscribers a transfer rate 17 times higher than the 56K modem. ASDL's strongest contender is cable TV, which is also becoming widely available over there.

Being able to compute on the road usually used to mean that you would have to tote around your notebook. Some companies have long realized that people don't normally consider carrying around a 3.4 kg computer as an effective way to exercise their shoulder and arm muscles. So, throughout 1998 we saw new generations of palmtop personal digital assistants (PDAs) from 3Com, NEC, Phillips and Hewlett Packard appearing on the market.

Microsoft also made significant improvements on its Windows CE operating system, and the CE 2.0 won a lot of nods from critiques. As the year draws to an end, Windows CE palmtop computers have also grown into subnotebooks, the most notable of which is Jornada from HP.

Let's rewind a bit and go back to June 25, when giant Microsoft launched the controversial Windows 98. Despite the brouhaha from skeptics who tried to emphasize the fact that the new operating system was incrementally and not revolutionary different from its predecessor, the public eventually realized that it did run applications noticeably faster. Over time, people seem to have agreed now that the upgrade was worth waiting for. That does not mean that the antitrust case against Microsoft is nullified, though.

Storage device also made some progress in 1998. With so much to download from the Web, you will always need ample hard disk space to store the pictures, video and audio, and therefore larger hard disks were also the highlight of 1998. Recently IBM introduced its largest hard disk ever, the Deskstar 25GP. This hard disk can hold up to 25 GB of data, 5,000 times more than the first hard disk built 42 years ago (IBM made the first hard disk in 1956, and the capacity was 5 MB).

1998 also saw the advent of USB peripherals, Advanced Graphics Processor-based video graphics subsystems, and the 100 MHz processor bus.

On the programming side, Java and Jini from Sun Microsystems continued to gain more followers. An interesting alternative to Microsoft Windows operating system also gained momentum this year. Called Linux, it is basically a Unix operating system for 386, 486 and Pentium PCs. It was created by Linus Torwalds together with a bunch of Internet hackers, and it became very popular in a very short period of time because of its multitasking, TCP/IP networking and other capabilities and because, especially, it is free.

Voice recognition also became more and more important especially because the new, more powerful processors do speed up the recognition process tremendously (don't try out any voice recognition program if you only have a Pentium 90 MHz machine).

Clearly, one of the most promising uses of voice recognition is in the car. Indeed, Microsoft, IBM and Intel have their own versions of PCs that will be integrated with the interior of your next car. Did I say "Next"? It must be a mistake, as Clarion already sells a PC that you can install in the dashboard of your current car.

Finally, a review of the computer panorama in 1998 would be incomplete without mention of the iMac. The latest masterpiece of Steve Jobs, this Mac computer really makes your mouth start to water.

It's pretty, and it's as user-friendly as you'd expect a Mac to be. For just $1,299, Apple will give you a sexy computer complete with a fast CD-ROM drive, a 56K modem, a 4 GB hard disk, 32 MB of RAM, built-in stereo speakers and a fast G3 processor. No wonder the iMac saved Apple from bankruptcy.

What was out in 1998? Clearly, the concept of Network Computer (NC) or NetPC that was so strongly pushed in 1997 was completely out of the scene. People's interest in them simply disappeared into thin air. The reason? Most probably the arrival of under- $600 PCs.

And what about next year? First and foremost I can see that Windows CE-based subnotebooks will be in. These notebooks will not have as many features as, for instance, a ThinkPad i Series, but people will be as happy working with them because they can use these minimalist computers to type documents, do some spreadsheet manipulation and access the Internet without the excess weight. Remember that for Windows CE machines, Microsoft has already prepared Pocket Word, Pocket Excel and Pocket Internet Explorer. These Windows CE applications use the same file format as the full version Microsoft Office, and the subnotebooks will give you up to 10 hours of battery life. What else could you need when you're away from your desktop?

Besides Windows CE subnotebooks there will be more thin and lightweight notebooks for those who cannot live without a larger screen and a full-sized keyboard.

In the first quarter of 1999 Intel will launch the 500 MHz Katmai processor to counter AMD K7. Toward the end of the year, the Merced IA-64 processor, the fruit of a four-year cooperation between Intel and Hewlett-Packard, may finally hit the shelves. All of this will happen as the under-$500 PCs become more and more widely available. People will buy them as a second or third PC for their family or their home-based businesses.

Wireless Internet access, most probably using CDMA cellular technology that frightened my friend Oswaldo Coelho, will also pick up. Home PCs will get networked as connecting them to each other as well as to other home appliances will become easier. Internet telephony will also gain ground, despite telecom monopolies desperate effort to block it. While smart cards -- the cards with an embedded microchip -- will be used in more places and for a wider range of purposes, wearable computers will remain an expensive toy.

Finally, investment in IT may not be as aggressive as it has been up to now -- except when it comes to implementing Enterprise Resource Planning (ERPs) systems such as SAP's R/3 or enterprise management such as CA's Unicenter TNG and IBM's Tivoli Enterprise. People will try to maximize the utilization of their investments rather than acquiring new hardware and software.

Now, let's see whether my predictions will be way off the mark. See you in a similar article in December 1999, as we ponder whether or not the Year 2000 Bug will indeed herald the end of the world.

-- Zatni Arbi