July 2026 Becomes Hottest Month Since 1991 Due to El Niño Effect
The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has stated that temperatures in July this year were the hottest since 1991. This temperature anomaly is due to the El Niño phenomenon, which is predicted to last until early next year.
This is based on analysis from 109 BMKG stations. From these observations, the average temperature for July 2026 reached 27.0°C. This temperature is above the average July temperature from 1991–2020.
“Based on analysis from 109 BMKG observation stations, the average air temperature for July 2026 was 27.0°C. The climatological normal air temperature for July (1991–2020 period) in Indonesia is 26.2°C (within the normal range of 18.55°C – 29.02°C),” BMKG wrote on its official website on Tuesday (11/8/2026).
The average temperature for July 2026 shows a positive anomaly of 0.8°C. This condition makes July 2026 the hottest since observations began in 1991.
“Based on these values, the average air temperature anomaly in July 2026 shows a positive anomaly of 0.8°C. Indonesia’s air temperature anomaly in July 2026 is the highest anomaly value throughout the observation period since 1991,” it continued.
BMKG explained that in general across Indonesia, the per-station average air temperature anomaly in July 2026 shows predominantly positive anomalies (101 stations) compared to their climatological averages.
The maximum anomaly was recorded at Sam Ratulangi Meteorological Station in Manado (2.43°C), while the minimum anomaly was recorded at Pasuruan Geophysical Station (-0.76°C).
In addition, BMKG revealed that this condition is an effect of the El Niño phenomenon. El Niño is expected to continue until early 2027.
“Based on BMKG analysis, the El Niño phenomenon is forecast to persist until early 2027 with a 75% probability in the very strong category,” it explained.
Furthermore, BMKG predicts that the peak of the 2026 dry season could occur between July and September 2026. However, not all regions experience the peak of the dry season at the same time, so it is important to be aware of conditions in each respective area.