Judging Indonesia

Judging Indonesia

The brutal ethnic violence that has erupted during the past week on the island of Borneo has brought a reminder that one of the messiest, and most important, foreign problems awaiting a Bush administration policy is Indonesia. Unlike South Korea or Malaysia, Indonesia has never recovered from the Asian economic crisis of 1997; like Thailand and the Philippines, it is struggling to consolidate weak democratic institutions under the shadow of a still-powerful military.

The difference is that Indonesia is huge -- 214 million people spread across some 4,000 islands -- and since the fall of longtime dictator Soeharto in 1998 it has been in danger of violently breaking apart, spreading bloodshed, refugees and economic disruption across Southeast Asia.

East Timor has already seceded; separatist movements are strong in the provinces of Aceh and Irian Jaya. As the centrifugal forces grow, so does the ethnic violence; the fighting in Borneo pits the native Dayak group against immigrants from the island of Madura.

One reason that formulating a response to this trouble is hard is that the natural partner for a U.S. administration -- the democratically elected civilian president, Abdurrahman Wahid -- has not only proved weak and ineffective in his 18 months in power but also is in serious danger of being impeached and removed from office in the next few months.

Though the corruption charges against Mr. Wahid are debatable, there is little question that he has been unable to rein in the powerful and corrupt forces in the military and business elite that dominated the country in the Soeharto era, or even curb military and police tactics that have exacerbated the separatism and ethnic cleansing.

Worse, the constitutional alternative to Mr. Wahid, Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri, may be an even weaker actor; so far she has hung back even while allowing her party to pursue Mr. Wahid's ouster.

This worrisome picture has reportedly prompted some consideration in the new administration of renewing once-strong U.S. ties with the Indonesian army, which will be a decisive power broker if, as many fear, the battle over Mr. Wahid's impeachment turns violent. But this would be a mistake.

Though the military may offer short-term stability, Indonesia's return to robust economic growth and social advancement depends on rooting out the old corrupt order. Mr. Wahid has long promised to advance this cause by holding trials for a score of senior officers and police officials implicated in atrocities in East Timor -- but no trials have ever been held.

The Bush administration could help both Mr. Wahid and the larger cause of democracy in Indonesia by insisting that these cases, rather than a costly battle over impeachment, take center stage.

-- Washington Post