JP/2/pkb Gus Dur's charisma put to the test again Muhammad Nafik and Blontank Poer The Jakarta Post/Surakarta

Former president Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid looks set to retain power as chief patron of the National Awakening Party (PKB) he founded six years ago after the 1988 downfall of strongman Soeharto.

Yet, his influence and charisma will be put to the test again during PKB's three-day congress in Semarang, Central Java, due to start on Saturday, after he suffered an ignominious defeat in last December's conference of the 40 million-strong Nahdlatul Ulama (NU).

The prominent moderate leader stumbled in the NU leadership race when the country's largest Muslim organization he had chaired for 15 years until his accession to the presidency in 1999, reelected his bitter opponent Hasyim Muzadi as leader for a second five-year term on Dec. 2, last year.

Hasyim defeated rival candidate Masdar Farid Mas'udi, who Gus Dur had backed in the race to head the executive tanfidziyah body. Hasyim's win followed Gus Dur's defeat at the hands of the low-profile but charismatic cleric Sahal Mahfudz to head the organization's powerful syuria law-making body.

Sahal's triumph meant that Gus Dur failed to block the reelection bid of Hasyim who had dared to resist Gus Dur openly by standing as running mate of incumbent Megawati Soekarnoputri in last year's presidential elections.

Gus Dur's political life has been a career of highs and rocky lows.

Years ahead of Soeharto's fall, Gus Dur emerged as a key figure on the country's political stage. Aside from advocating moderation, religious tolerance and democracy, he was one of a few leaders brave enough to call for a "national leadership succession".

Later after the stumbling Habibie regime crumbled Gus Dur reached his political peak, elected as president in October 1999.

After an erratic presidency his power base suffered the first critical blow when the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the country's highest legislature then dominated by Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Golkar Party, moved to impeach him as president for alleged incompetence.

The second blow came when the nearly blind figure was barred by the General Elections Commission (KPU) from contesting the presidential race because of his disabilities.

"He's finished," one cleric once said, commenting after Gus Dur lost in the December NU leadership congress in Surakarta, Central Java. Other delegates to the congress expressed empathy to him. "What's pity, Gus Dur", they said.

The national congress of the NU-based PKB could represent a further stumble if Gus Dur fails to ensure his supporters win the race, and many observers see this congress as a litmus test of his continuing influence in the party.

The meeting will also see a showdown between Gus Dur's two rival nephews -- Gus Dur detractor Saifullah Yusuf and his supporter Muhaimin Iskandar. Other important contenders are former defense minister Mahfud MD and senior PKB politician Ali Masykur Moesa, both solidly in the Gus Dur camp.

Both Saifullah and Muhaimin have received support from senior NU ulemas, including those who have backed Gus Dur's failed bid to secure the syuria top post.

Saifullah was suspended as the PKB secretary-general after defying Gus Dur by joining the Cabinet of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, whose presidential bid was not supported by the party.

Party insiders fear the rivalry between the opposing Saifullah and Muhaimin factions could undermine the integrity of the PKB as Gus Dur is determined to stymie Saifullah's leadership aspirations.

Saifullah, the current state minister for the development of disadvantaged regions and also the chairman of Ansor -- the NU's youth wing -- has won backing from a group of influential clerics led by Abdullah Faqih from the Langitan Islamic boarding school in Tuban, East Java.

This significant support, thanks to his intensive lobbying of senior ulemas, was apparently linked to Saifullah's plan to sue the PKB central board for suspending him.

"The majority of PKB executives at the regency and provincial branches across Java have vowed support for Saifullah," one of his close friends, Adie Massardi, who resigned on Thursday as a spokesman for Gus Dur, told The Jakarta Post.

Saifullah's influence within the party should not be underestimated. In an extraordinary PKB congress in January 2002, he looked certain to win the leadership, with a majority backing from regional branches and senior clerics. However, Gus Dur's risky end-game strategy of threatening to quit if his rebellious nephew was elected paid off, and the meeting chose Gus Dur's close aide Alwi Shihab, after senior clerics backed down from confrontation with their chief patron.

However, friends are not friends forever, and last October, Alwi was suspended from his post after joining Susilo's Cabinet along with Saifullah.

During the last five years, Saifullah has courted controversy, establishing close ties with Megawati Soekarnoputri and her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).

Now, the Ansor leader is rumored to have tacit support from Vice President Jusuf Kalla to challenge Gus Dur's candidates in the congress. Saifullah is also accused of attempting to vote buy his way to the top.

Observers say any Saifullah win would also represent a consolidation of power of the Susilo-Kalla government as an important political rival -- Gus Dur -- would be reduced in strength.

"Many negative rumors have been aimed at me. But I understand (their motivation) and am already immune to such speculation," Saifullah told the Post.

Muhaimin, a House of Representatives Deputy Speaker, meanwhile has said that instead of focusing his efforts on lobbying hard to become the new PKB chief, he would prefer to sell visible, workable policies for the party and the nation's future.

Many PKB leaders were too busy discussing leadership and had neglected the party's mission as a public advocator, Muhaimin said.

"The recent fuel price hikes, the welfare of workers and their plight overseas are ignored, although this should be the serious concern of all party executives."

Two other candidates, Mahfud and Ali Masykur, could emerge as dark horses to defeat both Saifullah and Muhaimin due to their close ties with Gus Dur.

Though a relative newcomer within the PKB, like Muhaimin, Mahfud is a close confidante of Gus Dur, while Ali Masykur is an influential young politician with a bright future.

Both Mahfud and Ali Masykur are equally popular and acceptable among the PKB grassroot supporters.

Should the rivalry between Saifullah and Muhaimin get too hot and the former be blocked by the PKB policy banning party executives from serving on government posts, either Mahfud or Ali Masykur could win the race due as Saifullah's supporters switch camps.