Joblessness to hit 45m in year 2004
Kurniawan Hari, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
A research center has warned the government of a drastic increase in the number of unemployed and the incidence of poverty over the next few years, underlining that the authorities' inability to properly handle the issue could lead to large-scale social unrest.
The gloomy situation would be exacerbated by fierce political rivalries ahead of the general election in 2004, according to the Center for Labor and Development Studies (CLDS).
"The number of unemployed will likely continue increasing from an estimated 40.2 million last year to about 45.2 million in 2004," said CLDS director Bomer Pasaribu at a press briefing here on Friday.
The most serious problem was the jump in unemployment among educated people, which by the 2004 was projected to reach 2.56 million.
He estimated that the number of drop-out students would also rise by an average of about 1.7 million per year, of which 53 percent would end up as job seekers.
The continuing unemployment crisis, he said, would in the future bring misery to the nation, thereby downgrading its status among the members of the international community.
Worse still, the unemployment problem would also cause social woes, ranging from rising infant mortality, crime, depression, suicides, divorces and other problems of demoralization.
The main mistake on the part of the government was that it never took into account the high cost of unemployment both economically, socially and politically, Bomer said.
Bomer, a former manpower minister, suggested that the government launch a "big bang reform", namely the creation of an opportunity for full-employment based on a people-oriented economy.
Such an opportunity was urgently needed because the government would most likely enter what he called a vicious cycle of crisis related to the new economic cycle of 2002.
The CLDS predicted that if national reconciliation, the reform agenda and economic recovery did not prevail until 2004, the government would not only be trapped by an unemployment crisis, but also a poverty crisis, debt crisis and an increasing country risk rating.
CLDS expert Sentanoe Kartanegoro added that the current national situation still showed uncertainty in all aspects of the economy, security, and politics.
"Don't talk about investment because it is a long term calculation. Indeed, foreign tourists who spend money on leisure stop their journeys at Singapore. They don't enter Indonesia for security reasons," he told The Jakarta Post.
Sentanoe, who is also the director of postgraduate department of the Pancasila University, said that unemployment constituted a direct consequence of the uncertain situation in the country.
"Unless the country is able to attract more investors to put up money for business activities here, the problem of unemployment will not get resolved," he added.
The CLDS noted that the problem of unemployment had been increasing over the last few years because of the inability of the domestic economy to absorb the enormous number of new workers coming onto the labor market every year.
Although Indonesia had experienced high economic growth in past years, and had been dubbed a miracle economy, the manpower crisis was undeniable, especially since the economic crisis which exploded in 1997.
The drastic deterioration in economic conditions had curtailed the demand for goods so that it had led to a market downturn. This situation had caused businessmen to close down or limit the scope of their businesses.
Besides, the failure of the government to deal with the conflicts in Aceh, Maluku, Irian Jaya, and West Kalimantan had aroused distrust and discouraged investments.