JI may survive top members' arrest, says ICG
JI may survive top members' arrest, says ICG
Agence France-Presse, Jakarta
Indonesia is unlikely to be able to eradicate the Jamaah Islamiyah (JI) terror group blamed for the Bali bombings and other attacks but should be able to contain it given the right policies, a report said on Tuesday.
The history of Darul Islam in which JI has its roots should be taken into consideration in assessing JI's ability to survive, said the report written by Sidney Jones of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.
Darul Islam was a West Java-based militant group that fought for an Islamic state in Indonesia in the 1950s and 1960s and survived a military defeat in the 1960s.
The report said the arrest of virtually all Darul Islam's leadership from 1977 to 1982 indicated that JI may also be able to survive the loss of its central command structure, dismantled by Jakarta following the October 2002 Bali bombings.
"If Darul Islam's past is any guide, JI may be able to weather internal splits and survive the arrests of its top leaders, but it's unlikely to expand very far outside of its old Darul Islam base," Jones -- an expert on JI -- said in the report.
The report said Darul Islam's history also suggested the network was able to renew itself organically at regular intervals -- younger members break away from older leaders who seem out of touch and form new splinter factions to respond to pressing political concerns.
But few breaks were final, and most of the various offshoots and factions stay in touch -- with the commitment to the establishment of an Islamic state in Indonesia the common thread that binds them.
"Darul Islam's ability to adapt and survive over the past five decades suggests Indonesia is unlikely to eradicate JI completely, but it ought to be able to contain the terrorist threat if it can manage communal tensions, improve law enforcement capacity, and exert better control over the sale and transfer of arms, ammunition and explosives," Jones said.
The al-Qaeda-linked Jamaah Islamiyah is blamed for numerous blasts in Indonesia in recent years.
These include the Bali nightclub blasts which killed 202 people, the August 2003 Jakarta Marriott hotel strike which left 12 dead, and a suicide attack on the Australian embassy in Jakarta last September which killed 11.
Abu Bakar Ba'asyir, JI's alleged leader, is on trial accused of links to some of the blasts. He denies the charges.
Jakarta has arrested and sentenced dozens for the bombings but two of JI's key members, Malaysian explosives experts Azahari Husin and Noordin Moh. Top, are still at large.