JCI Predicted to Correct Ahead of Indonesia's Inflation and Trade Balance Data Release; Stocks to Watch

JAKARTA - The Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) is projected to remain under pressure during trading on Monday (4/5/2026). The pressure arises following the index’s weakening of 2.03 per cent to 6,956.804 on Thursday last week.

MNC Sekuritas technical analyst Herditya Wicaksana observes that selling pressure continues to dominate the JCI’s movement. Market participants are awaiting the release of Indonesian economic data, namely inflation and trade balance.

From a technical perspective, the JCI’s support level is at 6,838. Resistance is in the 7,022 area.

“For Monday, we expect it to trend towards correction with support at 6,838 and resistance at 7,022. We note that the JCI remains vulnerable to dominance by selling pressure, with the release of Indonesia’s inflation and trade balance data upcoming,” said Herditya when contacted by Kompas.com on Sunday evening (3/5/2026).

The opportunity for strengthening towards the 7,100 area remains open. The condition is that global sentiment stays positive, particularly from geopolitical developments in the Middle East. Risks persist if oil prices rise again or the US dollar strengthens sharply. Such conditions could potentially drive the JCI to test levels below 6,900.

“Historically, May is known to have volatile tendencies with a bias that is not always strong, in line with the ‘Sell in May and go away’ phenomenon that often serves as a reference for global investors,” said Hendra to Kompas.com.

The JCI’s movement in May over recent years has tended to be sideways to limited weakening. This occurs when domestic catalysts are limited. Short-term rebound opportunities remain open, but the upward trend is not yet solid.

Sector rotation is beginning to shift along with the decline in oil prices. Energy stocks may experience normalisation. Sectors sensitive to inflation and interest rates, such as banking, consumer, and property, are receiving positive sentiment.

Several stocks worth monitoring include PT Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk (LSIP) with a target price of Rp 1,810. PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) with a target of Rp 268. PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk (JPFA) with a target price of Rp 2,730. PT Humpuss Maritim Internasional Tbk (HUMI) with a target of Rp 226.