JCI Potentially Weakens Amid Rupiah Pressure and Global Sentiment
Jakarta (ANTARA) - The Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) opened trading on Monday morning stronger by 29.02 points or 0.41 percent to 7,158.51.
Equity Analyst at PT Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT), Brigita Kinari, in her analysis in Jakarta on Monday, assessed that the JCI’s short-term movements tend to be mixed with a tendency towards consolidation to weakening.
The pressure is triggered by global sentiment dominated by risk-off actions as well as the weakening exchange rate of the rupiah, which drives the potential for foreign capital outflows.
Technically, after last Friday’s (24/4) close at the 7,129 level, the index is currently in an oversold area after closing the gap in the 7,308-7,346 range.
This condition opens opportunities for a short-term technical rebound, although the room for strengthening is limited.
“Market focus is now on testing the crucial support in the 7,100-7,150 range. If this level fails to hold, the JCI has the potential to continue weakening to close the next gap in the 7,022-7,080 area and test the psychological support around 6,917,” said Brigita.
From the global side, the failure to reach an agreement in negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran prolongs geopolitical uncertainty that could disrupt energy market stability.
Without de-escalation, markets are beginning to anticipate potential tightening of global energy supply, which could keep prices high. This condition risks holding back the decline in global inflation and limiting room for monetary policy easing in the short term.
In addition, Brigita explained that expectations regarding the direction of the US central bank (The Fed) policy have shifted more hawkish in line with the still high energy-based inflation risks.
Overall, global conditions are pushing investors to adopt a risk-off stance, with potential shifts of funds to safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and energy commodities as hedging instruments.
Meanwhile, from the domestic side, two main catalysts affecting the market are the adjustment of unsubsidised fuel oil (BBM) prices and significant pressure on the rupiah exchange rate, which once touched a record low in the Rp17,315 per US dollar range.
The increase in unsubsidised BBM prices, particularly Pertamax and Dex Series since 18 April, is seen as reflecting a response to still high global energy prices while maintaining fiscal credibility.
However, the market is beginning to anticipate ongoing impacts on short-term inflation, especially in the transportation and logistics sectors, which could pressure people’s purchasing power and margins in consumption-based sectors.
On the other hand, pressure on the rupiah is prompting Bank Indonesia (BI) to strengthen its stabilisation policy mix. In the Board of Governors Meeting on 22-23 April 2026, BI decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 4.75 percent.
“This policy is accompanied by interventions in the foreign exchange market and optimisation of monetary instruments to dampen volatility. Nevertheless, the rupiah’s weakening still increases the risk of imported inflation and enlarges the potential for capital outflows, particularly from the bond market,” said Brigita.
She added that the combination of energy price adjustments and monetary policy that tends to be tight shows the authorities’ defensive and pre-emptive stance in maintaining macroeconomic stability.
Nevertheless, the market is expected to remain cautious in the short term, in line with increasing sensitivity to inflation risks and external stability.
“Going forward, the effectiveness of policy responses, especially in containing rupiah volatility without sacrificing growth momentum, will be key in determining the direction of domestic market sentiment and the sustainability of foreign fund flows,” she said.