JCI Falls More Than 1%: Here’s Why

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia — The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) was in negative territory during the first session of trading on Thursday (15 October 2026). At 9.20 am WIB, the index stood at 5,881.78, down 61.24 points, or 1.03%.

Pressure on the index was evident from the start of the session. The JCI opened at 5,917.13, below the previous day’s close, then continued to fall, reaching an intraday low of 5,880.92. Its high for the day was only 5,917.70, barely above the opening level.

Trading volume was 55.42 million lots, with a transaction value of Rp1,292.65 billion.

According to Refinitiv data, the decline was led by the property sector, which fell 1.9%, followed by energy, down 1.6%, and basic materials, down 1.5%.

Among the shares weighing on the JCI were PT Bank Central Asia Tbk. (BBCA), PT Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk. (BRMS), PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk. (DSSA), PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk. (AMMN) and PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. (BBRI).

Shares that helped cushion the JCI’s decline included PT Mora Telematika Indonesia Tbk. (MORA), PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk. (BMRI), PT Bank of India Indonesia Tbk. (BSWD), PT Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk. (TFCO) and PT Bhineka Inovasi Ketahanan Energi Tbk. (BIKE).

Indonesia’s financial markets are expected to remain under pressure today. Rising US inflation, a strong dollar and ongoing conflict could weigh on both the JCI and the rupiah.

A number of events and economic data releases are also in focus, including a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.

1. War developments: Houthis threaten attacks on Saudi airports and oil facilities

Yemen’s Houthi group has threatened to continue attacks on Saudi airports and oil facilities. The warning came a day after an attack reportedly damaged the Dhahran complex of Saudi oil giant Aramco.

The Houthis described the facilities as legitimate targets and said the attacks were in retaliation for Saudi strikes in Yemen. The Saudi-led coalition said it had intercepted a ballistic missile heading towards Riyadh on Wednesday.

The escalation threatens Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambition to diversify Saudi Arabia’s economy and reduce its dependence on oil. In Yemen, the intensifying fighting is also worsening the humanitarian crisis and obstructing aid deliveries.

2. US inflation heats up, dollar surges

The US released its September inflation data on Wednesday.

US inflation rose to 3.7% year on year in September 2026, from 3.4% in each of the previous two months. The figure exceeded the market’s 3.6% forecast, driven by a surge in energy prices.

According to the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), petrol prices jumped 34.2% year on year, while heating oil prices surged 74.2%. On a monthly basis, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.6%, its biggest increase since April 2026. Petrol prices climbed 9.1%, accounting for more than half of the monthly CPI increase.

Core inflation also picked up, rising to 2.6% year on year from 2.4% in August. Core inflation increased by 0.3% month on month, above the 0.2% expected.

Following the higher inflation reading, the dollar index surged, reaching 102.555 in Wednesday’s trading. It remains around its highest level since April 2025, or a year and a half ago.

The rise in the dollar index could weaken the rupiah by prompting capital outflows from emerging markets.

3. China’s trade surplus reaches US$133bn as exports surge 36%

China released its September consumer and producer inflation and trade balance data on Wednesday. Its trade surplus rose sharply to US$133.53 billion in September 2026, from US$88.72 billion in the same period last year. The figure exceeded the market forecast of US$118.1 billion and was the second-largest surplus on record.

According to China’s General Administration of Customs, exports surged 36.3% year on year to US$447.18 billion.

Car exports also rose sharply. Shipments to the United States increased by 39.6%, while exports to the European Union grew 25.3% and those to ASEAN countries jumped 52.3%.

China’s imports also surged, rising 31% year on year to a record US$313.66 billion, above the market forecast of 24.5%.

China’s cumulative trade surplus reached US$938.11 billion in January-September 2026. This puts the country on course to exceed last year’s record annual surplus of US$1.2 trillion.

The improvement in China’s trade balance, particularly the rise in imports, is good news for Indonesia. China is a major trading partner, and higher imports are expected to boost demand for Indonesian goods.

4. China inflation

China’s inflation rose to 0.9% year on year in September 2026, from 0.8% in August. The increase was driven by transport costs and energy prices, although it remained below the market forecast of 1%.

China’s CPI rose 0.2% month on month in September 2026. Since 1996, monthly inflation in China has averaged 0.14%, with a record high of 2.6% in February 2008 and a low of minus 1.8% in June 1998.

Meanwhile, producer price inflation surged to 5%, its highest level since June 2022, from 3.8% in August. Higher fuel prices and production costs drove the increase in industrial prices.

5. Fed Chair and IMF chief in discussion

The IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok include an important event today, Thursday (15 October 2026): a fireside chat between International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

The discussion is scheduled for 10.30 am WIB and could offer clues about the global economic outlook, inflationary pressures, the direction of US interest rates and global debt risks.

Warsh’s remarks are being closely watched by market participants because they could shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy, movements in the US dollar and Treasury yields, and gold prices. For Indonesia, signals of tighter Fed policy could put pressure on the rupiah and trigger capital outflows from emerging markets, while a more dovish tone could support risk assets.

6. US producer inflation

The US is due to release its September 2026 Producer Price Index (PPI) data today, Thursday (15 October 2026). Producer inflation rose by 0.4% month on month in August 2026, its biggest increase in three months, driven by higher goods prices, including diesel.

Year-on-year producer inflation rose to 5.4% in August 2026 from 4.8% in July, primarily because of higher transport costs.