JCI Drops Below 7,000, Opportunity to Accumulate Cheap Stocks - Market
The decline of the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) over the past four months of 2026 opens up opportunities to accumulate cheap stocks with strong fundamentals.
Head of Research at KISI Sekuritas, Muhammad Wafi, notes several stocks with attractive valuations, featuring price-to-book ratios (PBV) below 1 times to 1.5 times, yet possessing strong earnings visibility. These stocks include AADI, AKRA, BBCA, MEDC, and AMRT. Additionally, INDF and ICBP could serve as options due to their lower exposure to foreign sentiment.
In this situation, Wafi observes two patterns in investor behaviour: local institutions will begin gradual accumulation at support levels, while retail investors are still awaiting certainty. “However, accumulation can already begin, but gradually and selectively. The current correction has entered an attractive accumulation zone for the long term. Pay attention to two important dates: 12 May 2026 for the MSCI announcement, and 1 June 2026 for the effective rebalancing. If MSCI does not worsen the situation, the potential for a relief rally is quite significant,” stated Wafi.
Senior Market Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas, Nafan Aji Gusta, assesses that investors currently have a good momentum to gain from accumulating cheap valuation stocks. Nafan sees a fairly open opportunity for market rebound, where in a positive scenario, the JCI could reach 8,312 as the 2026 target. Moreover, the current JCI price-earnings ratio valuation is below the two-year average.
In the current market situation, Nafan advises investors to accumulate gradually on stocks with strong fundamentals. Several stocks recommended by Mirae Asset Sekuritas for the second quarter of this year include ADMR with a target price of Rp2,130, ADRO at Rp2,780, ANTM at Rp4,390, BBCA at Rp8,350, BBNI at Rp4,520, BBRI at Rp3,760, BMRI at Rp6,200, EMAS at Rp10,900, MEDC at Rp1,820, PGAS at Rp2,320, and UNTR with a target price of Rp33,975. “This condition can be an opportunity, especially for domestic investors, to accumulate buys on cheap valuation stocks, regardless of various sentiments, particularly such as the negative outlook from Moody’s and Fitch Ratings,” he emphasised.
JUMBO STOCKS
The sluggish performance of the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) throughout 2026 is inseparable from the plunge in prices of jumbo-capitalisation stocks in the Indonesian capital market. Stocks like DSSA, BBCA, and BREN, which usually serve as the main growth engines for the index, are now among the top 10 laggards of the JCI year-to-date (YtD).
Citing data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) as of 30 April, the JCI has fallen around 19.55% to 6,956.81 throughout 2026 (year-to-date/YtD). This position was last experienced by the JCI in June 2025, when the market slowly climbed back after the US President announced tariff policies in April 2025.
In line with that, foreign investors have recorded net selling worth Rp49.87 trillion from the domestic market throughout this year, pushing the JCI valuation to a PER of 14.69 times and PBV of 1.9 times.
A combination of geopolitical sentiments, lack of domestic catalysts, and the implementation of various new capital market reform rules have driven several prominent stocks to underperform throughout the year. Two prominent stocks among the top laggards are PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA) and PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk (BREN).
DSSA has corrected 60.02% to Rp1,615 following the stock split and has pressured the JCI by 214.26 points. Similarly, PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk (BREN), which has corrected 54.02% to Rp4,460, has pressured the JCI by 193.86 points.
Both of these stocks, along with others, are among the nine stocks indicated for high shareholding concentration (HSC) announced by the BEI on 2 April 2026. Since then, both stocks have experienced quite deep corrections.
Besides these two stocks, several prominent banking stocks have also undergone similar corrections. For instance, shares of PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) have plunged 27.55% to Rp5,850, pressuring the JCI by 210.18 points.
Likewise, shares of PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBRI) have plunged 18.31% to Rp2,990, while shares of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk (BMRI) have weakened 13.92% to Rp4,390. These two stocks have each pressured the JCI by 105.19 points and 55.33 points, respectively.
The performance of shares in PT MD Entertainment Tbk (FILM) has also corrected 83.59% to Rp2,380, PT Barito Pacific Tbk (BRPT) has plunged 43.88% to Rp1,835, and PT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (TLKM) has weakened 19.25% to Rp2,810.
Shares of PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) have also plunged 27.39% to Rp11,400, pressuring the JCI by 68.57 points. Similarly, shares of PT Ekamas Mora Republik Tbk (MORA) have dropped 60.91% to Rp4,710, pressuring the JCI by 56.97 points.
CAUSES OF JCI PRESSURE
The pressure on the Indonesian stock market throughout this year stems from a combination of global and domestic sentiments arriving simultaneously. The rise in oil prices amid escalating conflict in Iran has driven investors away from risky assets.
On the other hand, MSCI’s decision to suspend changes in the composition of Indonesian stocks has also triggered short-term foreign fund outflows.
Analyst at BRI Danareksa Sekuritas, Abida Massi Armand, assesses that this sharp correction has lowered the JCI price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to around 11-12 times. This level is approaching the lowest point in the last five years and is below the historical average of around 14-15 times.
“This reflects that most risks, MSCI pressures, rupiah weakening, and FOMC uncertainty have been sufficiently discounted by the market,” explained Abida.
For medium-term investors, Abida assesses that the current JCI level offers sufficient margin of safety for gradual accumulation. Nevertheless, she reminds that the market is still awaiting recovery catalysts, particularly from rupiah exchange rate stability and clarity on The Fed’s interest rate policy direction.
In the short term, market pressure is also overshadowed by potential outflows and