Japan's double track policy pays

Japan's double track policy pays

By Eiichi Furukawa

TOKYO (JP): It has been five years since Malaysian Prime
Minister Mahathir Mohamad proposed the formation of an East Asia
Economic Caucus (EAEC), a group comprised of the seven member of
ASEAN countries and China, Japan and Korea.

Having received vehement objection from the United States and
Australia, the proposal has not taken off until today. On the
other hand, neither has the idea faded away or died down as
expected by the Americans and Australians. Instead, the idea
persisted, and gradually gained strength in the past one and half
years.

Unlike the Bush administration, the Clinton administration,
initially took a soft approach to EAEC and stated that it did not
oppose it. However, in June 1994, it again stepped back from the
position and communicated its opposition to EAEC to the Japanese
government.

Then, the Japanese government decided to take a double track
policy. First, it announced its formal position saying that in
order to establish EAEC, it is necessary to obtain the
understanding and blessings of the United States and Australia.
Since the two countries were not expected easily to withdraw
their objection, it was thought unlikely that the EAEC would take
off for a considerable time to come.

Secondly, the Japanese government decided to participate in
informal meetings of the East Asian countries when invited. It
was for the purpose of taking time, and to gradually build up a
group of East Asian countries.

Soon after came an invitation from the ASEAN side to attend a
luncheon meeting to be held in Bangkok on the occasion of the
post-ministerial conference of the ASEAN foreign ministers
meeting on July 25, 1994. The invitation was accepted and Foreign
Minister Kono attended a so-called informal working luncheon
which was attended by the foreign ministers of the six ASEAN
member countries and China, Japan and Korea. The embassy
officials of the United States and Australia in Tokyo went to the
Japanese foreign ministry soon after the meeting and inquired
about the meeting. It was explained that the meeting was simply
an informal get-together meeting and had nothing to do with the
EAEC. The embassy officials were satisfied with the explanation
and did not make much fuss over the meeting.

Following the naming of the meeting of G-7 finance ministers
and central bank governors, ASEAN named the group as a 6+3
meeting which was changed to a 7+3 meeting in July last year when
Vietnam joined ASEAN. The second meeting of 7+3 foreign ministers
was held in Brunei on July 31 last year again on the occasion of
the post-ministerial conference of the ASEAN foreign ministers
meeting. Subsequently, on Nov. 19, 1995, during the APEC summit
meeting in Osaka, a 7+3 Economic Ministers meeting was held by
the proposal of the then Japanese International Trade and
Industry Minister, Ryutaro Hashimoto (now Prime Minister). As a
result of the above meetings, a group of 7+3 was established
without much ado but by not calling it as a group of the EAEC.

During the period, no objection was echoed against the group
of 7+3 meetings while the voice objecting to the EAEC was
continued.

The purpose of gradualism and creeping tactic was thereby
achieved.

When an Asia-Europe summit meeting was planned, the
participants of the European side were decided to be the EU
members. There is no such a group in East Asia except the 7+3
group.

It was then naturally decided by ASEAN that the participants
of the Asian side be the members of group of 7+3. The purpose of
EAEC originally proposed by Mahathir was to gain a voice of the
East Asian countries at various international fora.

The Asia Europe summit will be the first occasion for the
group to perform such functions. Three official level meetings
have been held for the preparation of the meeting and two
ministerial meetings are scheduled for February. New Foreign
Minister Ikeda is planning to attend the 7+3 foreign ministers
meeting scheduled in Phuket in South Thailand if the Diet
schedule allows him to make a foreign trip. A meeting of 7+3
economic ministers may be held later in the month.

At the meeting of the ASEAN heads of government or summit
meeting held in Bangkok on Dec. 14-15 last year, Prime Minister
Goh Chok Tong of Singapore proposed to hold a meeting of 7+3 East
Asian leaders. The meeting agreed to the proposal in principle
and hold it in December this year in Indonesia. Prime Minister
Goh further proposed to hold an East Asia 7+3 ministerial
meeting.

The proposal was accepted, and it was decided to hold it in
June in Kuala Lumpur to discuss the question of supporting and
assisting the overall economic development of the countries in
the Greater Mekong River region which is made up of Cambodia,
Laos, Myanmar and the Yunan province of China. Receiving the keen
interest of the foreign ministry and MITI in the development of
the Greater Mekong River Region, it is considered that the
Japanese government will be most likely to participate in the
meeting.

It will be the first time for the group of 7+3 to hold a
formal meeting without other parties, and an East Asian group or
EAEC will be formalized at the meeting.

In December last year, the Japanese Ambassador in Malaysia
announced that a symposium of the non-governmental experts of 7+3
countries would be held in Kuala Lumpur in March this year. The
symposium will be organized jointly by the Japan Institute of
International Affairs (JIIA) and the Malaysian Institute of
Strategic and International Studies (ISIS). JIIA is a think-tank
arm of the Japanese Foreign Ministry while ISIS is that of the
Malaysian Government. The symposium is therefore considered to be
held on behalf of two governments concerned heralding the formal
government actions to be taken subsequently.

As regards the U.S. government, it already withdrew its
objection to EAEC. In May last year, Assistant Secretary Winston
Lord of the state department said that "the U.S. is trying to
approach EAEC in a spirit of cooperation, and it is up to Japan
to decide which meeting Japan wants to attend."

On the other hand, Australia and New Zealand are not invited
to the June meeting since it is a meeting of East Asian
countries. At the same time, Australia may not wish to attend the
meeting since it is taking a position to oppose the extension of
assistance to the military regime of Myanmar and the government
of Cambodia controlled by second Prime Minister Hun Sen of the
People's Party.

Five years after the proposal of Mahathir, a group of East
Asian countries will take off formally some time this year if not
in the name of EAEC.

The writer is executive director of the Japan Center for
International Strategies, Tokyo.