Japan's double track policy pays

Japan's double track policy pays

By Eiichi Furukawa

TOKYO (JP): It has been five years since Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad proposed the formation of an East Asia Economic Caucus (EAEC), a group comprised of the seven member of ASEAN countries and China, Japan and Korea.

Having received vehement objection from the United States and Australia, the proposal has not taken off until today. On the other hand, neither has the idea faded away or died down as expected by the Americans and Australians. Instead, the idea persisted, and gradually gained strength in the past one and half years.

Unlike the Bush administration, the Clinton administration, initially took a soft approach to EAEC and stated that it did not oppose it. However, in June 1994, it again stepped back from the position and communicated its opposition to EAEC to the Japanese government.

Then, the Japanese government decided to take a double track policy. First, it announced its formal position saying that in order to establish EAEC, it is necessary to obtain the understanding and blessings of the United States and Australia. Since the two countries were not expected easily to withdraw their objection, it was thought unlikely that the EAEC would take off for a considerable time to come.

Secondly, the Japanese government decided to participate in informal meetings of the East Asian countries when invited. It was for the purpose of taking time, and to gradually build up a group of East Asian countries.

Soon after came an invitation from the ASEAN side to attend a luncheon meeting to be held in Bangkok on the occasion of the post-ministerial conference of the ASEAN foreign ministers meeting on July 25, 1994. The invitation was accepted and Foreign Minister Kono attended a so-called informal working luncheon which was attended by the foreign ministers of the six ASEAN member countries and China, Japan and Korea. The embassy officials of the United States and Australia in Tokyo went to the Japanese foreign ministry soon after the meeting and inquired about the meeting. It was explained that the meeting was simply an informal get-together meeting and had nothing to do with the EAEC. The embassy officials were satisfied with the explanation and did not make much fuss over the meeting.

Following the naming of the meeting of G-7 finance ministers and central bank governors, ASEAN named the group as a 6+3 meeting which was changed to a 7+3 meeting in July last year when Vietnam joined ASEAN. The second meeting of 7+3 foreign ministers was held in Brunei on July 31 last year again on the occasion of the post-ministerial conference of the ASEAN foreign ministers meeting. Subsequently, on Nov. 19, 1995, during the APEC summit meeting in Osaka, a 7+3 Economic Ministers meeting was held by the proposal of the then Japanese International Trade and Industry Minister, Ryutaro Hashimoto (now Prime Minister). As a result of the above meetings, a group of 7+3 was established without much ado but by not calling it as a group of the EAEC.

During the period, no objection was echoed against the group of 7+3 meetings while the voice objecting to the EAEC was continued.

The purpose of gradualism and creeping tactic was thereby achieved.

When an Asia-Europe summit meeting was planned, the participants of the European side were decided to be the EU members. There is no such a group in East Asia except the 7+3 group.

It was then naturally decided by ASEAN that the participants of the Asian side be the members of group of 7+3. The purpose of EAEC originally proposed by Mahathir was to gain a voice of the East Asian countries at various international fora.

The Asia Europe summit will be the first occasion for the group to perform such functions. Three official level meetings have been held for the preparation of the meeting and two ministerial meetings are scheduled for February. New Foreign Minister Ikeda is planning to attend the 7+3 foreign ministers meeting scheduled in Phuket in South Thailand if the Diet schedule allows him to make a foreign trip. A meeting of 7+3 economic ministers may be held later in the month.

At the meeting of the ASEAN heads of government or summit meeting held in Bangkok on Dec. 14-15 last year, Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong of Singapore proposed to hold a meeting of 7+3 East Asian leaders. The meeting agreed to the proposal in principle and hold it in December this year in Indonesia. Prime Minister Goh further proposed to hold an East Asia 7+3 ministerial meeting.

The proposal was accepted, and it was decided to hold it in June in Kuala Lumpur to discuss the question of supporting and assisting the overall economic development of the countries in the Greater Mekong River region which is made up of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and the Yunan province of China. Receiving the keen interest of the foreign ministry and MITI in the development of the Greater Mekong River Region, it is considered that the Japanese government will be most likely to participate in the meeting.

It will be the first time for the group of 7+3 to hold a formal meeting without other parties, and an East Asian group or EAEC will be formalized at the meeting.

In December last year, the Japanese Ambassador in Malaysia announced that a symposium of the non-governmental experts of 7+3 countries would be held in Kuala Lumpur in March this year. The symposium will be organized jointly by the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) and the Malaysian Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS). JIIA is a think-tank arm of the Japanese Foreign Ministry while ISIS is that of the Malaysian Government. The symposium is therefore considered to be held on behalf of two governments concerned heralding the formal government actions to be taken subsequently.

As regards the U.S. government, it already withdrew its objection to EAEC. In May last year, Assistant Secretary Winston Lord of the state department said that "the U.S. is trying to approach EAEC in a spirit of cooperation, and it is up to Japan to decide which meeting Japan wants to attend."

On the other hand, Australia and New Zealand are not invited to the June meeting since it is a meeting of East Asian countries. At the same time, Australia may not wish to attend the meeting since it is taking a position to oppose the extension of assistance to the military regime of Myanmar and the government of Cambodia controlled by second Prime Minister Hun Sen of the People's Party.

Five years after the proposal of Mahathir, a group of East Asian countries will take off formally some time this year if not in the name of EAEC.

The writer is executive director of the Japan Center for International Strategies, Tokyo.