Japan eyes business deals during Jiang's visit
Japan eyes business deals during Jiang's visit
By Edward Neilan
"Bullet train" excursion may mean more to ties than "spin
doctor" politicizing.
TOKYO (JP): Chinese President Jiang Zemin's ride on a
Shinkansen "bullet train" between Tokyo and Sendai will be the
most important event during his visit to Japan this week.
Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi wants to rev up Jiang's
interest in purchasing Japanese technology for the Chinese high
speed rail project linking the population-dense Beijing-Shanghai
corridor, due to begin in 2000.
A French-German consortium is the main competitor for the
US$30 billion job. Europeans have shut out the Japanese in
similar projects in South Korea and Taiwan.
Much of the track on the Beijing-Shanghai line -- touted
eventually to become the world's most heavily traveled -- is still
the same that was used for Marlene Dietrich's famous ride on the
Shanghai Express. In that 1932 film by Erich Von Stromberg,
Dietrich murmured the now-classic line "It took more than one
man to change my name to Shanghai Lil."
Jiang is not likely to say anything so memorable on his ride
to Sendai; a simple "yes" to the Japanese rail plan will do.
The promise of Japan-China economic cooperation is awesome.
Remember that right now, Japan's gross national product (GNP)
amounts to nearly two-thirds of Asia's total economic production
while China's GNP is the second biggest, at 10 percent. South
Korea and Thailand are only in the "others" category.
While some pundits and academics are straining their cerebrum
cortexes to find political, ideological and strategic meaning in
the Jiang visit, the economic implications for the future are
overriding.
Several accords on pollution and administrative help for
small an midsize Chinese companies are extremely important.
Of course, the visit will not be completely devoid of high-
visibility political showmanship.
Jiang may be slow in introducing democracy to the world's
most populous nation but he is up to date in utilizing some other
Western-style political devices.
Hong Kong and Japanese business executives with close ties to
Jiang from his days as Shanghai mayor have confirmed that Jiang
recently has set up a coterie of public relations specialists or
"spin doctors" to shape his image positively both domestically
and internationally.
(The term "spin doctor" is slang for someone who adds a
particular spin or viewpoint to an act or policy. It gained
popular usage in Washington D.C. in the United States because of
the habit of President Bill Clinton administration operatives
giving "spin" to controversial issues).
The "spin doctors" were in full gear over the "postponement"
of the Sept. 6-11 date of Jiang's visit to Japan and then
"rescheduling" for this week.
Originally viewed as a quick follow-up to the Clinton summer
visit to China , Jiang postponed his Japan visit, citing "floods"
in China.
Skeptics in Japan felt the postponement was more because China
had failed to win Japan's approval for the three "three nos"
security policy.
But political insiders believed it was more Japanese
reluctance to increase the size of its loan package to China that
resulted in the postponement.
Because preparations for the visit took place at the end of
the administration of Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, the
Chinese spin doctors believed China would win more concession on
both security issues and loans dealing with a new prime minister.
Hashimoto had become testy about tabloid allegations of his
alleged affair with a Chinese spy and he did not want to appear
soft on China.
Jiang was seen at home as presidentially looking after flood
victims, but not taking the blame for deforestation and lack of
preparation that caused the widespread damage.
The floods gave both an excuse for the delay and a reason to
ask for more loan funds to aid flood victims. Plus the bonus of
dealing with a new prime minister thought to be interested in
making a fresh start with China
Neither Jiang nor his spin doctors reckoned with the North
Korean missile shot Aug. 31. This event stiffened Japanese
resolve on security matters, including more receptiveness to the
U.S.-backed Theater Missile Defense (TMD) concept. Then world
economic pressure on Japan heightened and Tokyo's position
hardened on the loans, despite the appeals for flood relief.
Thus the spin doctors' first major effort boomeranged.
China, despite blustering about Japan's wartime past and
security closeness to the U.S. which may affect Taiwan, is coming
hat in hand on the loan issue. Beijing needs the loans to
continue its "growth" and to back up its insistence that it won't
devalue the renminbi.
Japan is to extend about $3 billion in new loans to China in
the 1999-2001 period, compared with the approximately $5 billion
earmarked for the previous three-year period.
Tokyo flatly rebuffed the Chinese bid for an enhanced package
based on flood relief. But further talks, including horse-
trading over the railroad issue, could see some concessions.
There have always been people in the mainland Chinese
apparatus who were supposed to take care of public relations.
Internationally, the task was to make the somber pronouncements
of the Communist Party Propaganda Department more palatable to
foreign audiences.
But not until Jiang's visit to the U.S. last year did the
concept take on such emphasis leading to Jiang's appointment of a
group of public relations advisers or "spin doctors."
His coaching sessions by Harvard Prof. Ezra Vogel and U.S.
Senator Diane Feinstein prior to appointments in America
convinced Jiang of the value of U.S.-style public relations.
China watchers have noticed that Jiang is never placed in a
position where he can be criticized. He is seen applauding
construction and food relief efforts but it is Premier Zhu Rongji
who must take the critical flak when things go wrong.
Jiang hopes the tactic will elevate him to "Great Helmsman"
status, accorded so far only to Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.
The writer is a veteran analyst of Northeast Asian affairs and
a Media Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University.