Jakarta to experience tumultuous weather

Evi Mariani, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

People might be able to breathe a great sigh of relief as last week did not see significant floods as feared by many, but this does not mean that they could be entirely relieved as the city could still be deluged by flood waters in the near future.

Jakarta, as well as several areas in Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara and southern Kalimantan, Sumatra and Sulawesi, may experience fluctuating weather for the next two months, according to Meteorological and Geophysics Agency (BMG).

The agency earlier predicted that Jakarta would get three days or torrential rain last week, resulting in the inundation of the flood-prone areas.

Instead of raining, most days of the week were extremely hot and sunny here, except for Monday's heavy rain.

Achmad Zakir, chief of weather forecast division at the BMG explained that the extreme weather had affected the weather forecast.

"I forecasted on Jan. 3 that Jakarta might experience three consecutive days of heavy rains. But on Jan. 5, above the South China sea, there were unexpected clouds that blocked the air mass that should have brought rains to Java."

Because of this unexpected occurrence, the weather would be fluctuating, so the BMG will carefully watch these developments.

But he still warns Jakarta residents to be aware of floods because the peak of this rainy season will come sooner or later in January or February.

Hadi Widiatmoko, a staff member of the weather forecasting division, added that the warming of the sea surface in the middle and eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean caused a distortion to the normal weather pattern. The warming, which does not normally happen, will eventually cool down, but it will take about two months.

The warming also distorts the cloud distribution pattern. Last weeks's scorching heat in Jakarta happened because the humidity in Jakarta was low and the clouds were thin, so the heat of the sun was unobstructed.

Heavy rains still are on the horizon for Jakarta and the other areas, although the rain will be inconsistent. For example, after a week of extreme heat, Jakarta and other areas may experience at least two consecutive days of heavy rain before suffering scorching heat again, according to Hadi.

As a consequence of the fluctuating weather, the forecasts have to be updated daily. "If the weather is stable, like the weather in Central Kalimantan, we can forecast the weather trend for the next several days. However, since the pattern is distorted by the warming, we have to watch for the changes in the weather more frequently," he said.

Hadi added that floods may occur in Jakarta later this month and in February, although probably not as severe as last year's.

"Jakartans do not have to be panic, but still have to be aware of a possibility of floods."