Wed, 10 Nov 2004

Jakarta stock market hits new record high

The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Driven by optimism of higher economic growth next year and continuing macroeconomic stability, the Jakarta stock market soared on Tuesday to another record high.

The Jakarta Composite Index closed 1.42 percent, or 12.642 points, higher at 901.380 on a trading volume of 873.35 million shares worth Rp 1 trillion (about US$111 million).

The record high for the bourse will not only improve its chances of becoming the best performing stock market in the region, but will also increase confidence in the country in the eyes of international rating agencies and investors.

Stock analyst Fendi Susiyanto of BNI Securities said investors continued to be buoyed up by positive sentiment amid confidence that the new government would be able to provide a more conducive climate for business.

"The positive sentiment includes higher growth projections for next year, more stable macroeconomic indicators, a better export performance and improving corporate profitability during the third quarter of this year," said Fendi.

Fendy explained that investors saw better prospects for listed companies with there being huge scope for business growth capitalizing on stronger domestic purchasing power.

The economy is expected to grow by 4.8 percent this year and 5.4 percent next year, up from 4.1 percent in 2003.

The higher growth prospects for Indonesia next year have been confirmed by the World Bank, which has decided to revise up its Indonesian growth projections for this year and next.

The World Bank said the country's gross domestic product would expand by 4.9 percent this year, compared to an initial projection of 4.5 percent. It also expected Southeast Asia's largest economy to grow by 5.4 percent next year, up from an initial forecast of 5.0 percent.

The government's plan to sell more of its minority stakes in a number of banks has also contributed positively to market sentiment this week.

The Ministry of Finance's Asset Management Company (PPA) has confirmed that it will sell 20 percent of the government's stake in Permata Bank and in a number of other listed banks in December to help plug the state budget deficit.

The government sold 10 percent of its shares in Bank Danamon for Rp 1.74 trillion on Thursday.

The stock market usually goes into rally mode ahead of the government asset divestments, with some analysts suggesting that the surge in the bourse had been helped by a number of state pension funds and insurance companies, which had been ordered to pump funds into the market and then took them back after the sales had been completed.

"Given all the positive sentiment, including the good news from the World Bank, there is a possibility that the Index will test a new resistance level of 928," said Fendy, adding that negative sentiment from the regional market and the upcoming long holidays would likely limit the upside potential for the market.

Investors are likely to avoid active trading in the next couple of days before the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, which is expected to raise the U.S. benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2 percent.

A need for cash over the long Idul Fitri holiday is also expected to encourage profit-taking among investors.