Jakarta predicted 5th most populous world city by 2015

By T. Sima Gunawan

ISTANBUL, Turkey (JP): The United Nations predicts that Jakarta, today home to more than nine million people, will be the fifth most populous city in the world by 2015, with a population of 21.2 million.

Tokyo, Japan will top the list with 28.7 million people, followed by Bombay, India (27.4 million), Lagos, Nigeria (24.4 million) and Shanghai, China (23.4 million).

Jakarta will surpass Sao Paulo, Brazil (20.6 million), Karachi, Pakistan (20.6 million), Beijing, China (19.4 million), Dhaka, Bangladesh (19.0 million), and Mexico City (18.8 million).

The Jakarta administration's estimate, however, is much lower at 15.2 million people in the city by 2015. The prediction is based on a 2.41 percent annual population growth rate.

The 15 million people will live on 670,000 hectares (670 km2) of land, giving a population density of 227.3 people per hectare or 22,730 per square kilometer. Today there are 13,000 people/km2 in Jakarta.

Between 1970 and 1990, the population of Indonesia rose from 120 million to over 190 million. During the same period, the number of households rose from 24.5 million to nearly 40 million. According to the 1990 census, about 55.4 million Indonesians live in cities.

Budhy Tjahjati, from the National Development Planing Board, estimates that long before the end of the second long term development plan in 2019, there will be 15 new urban areas with populations over one million. Four of the new Indonesian cities will have more than five million people living in them.

Around 60 percent of the Indonesian population will live in urban areas, Budhy said during a recent discussion preceding the UN Conference on Human Settlement II.

Urban development can fulfill only some of the population's needs. In 1993, only 14.71 percent of urban Indonesian households were served by clean water, 55.29 percent by electricity, and 2.14 by telecommunications networks.

The growth of the industrial sector in major urban centers has fostered urban growth, with villagers moving to cities in hope of a better life. Many end up as urban poor instead.

Household waste, industrial waste and vehicle emissions are the major pollutants corroding the environment and human health.

The World Bank estimates that the environmental costs of air and water pollution in Jakarta will reach US$1 billion a year.

The need for adequate housing, described in various international human rights instruments, is the major topic at the UN conference which starts today and runs through June 14 in Istanbul.

The UN Center for Human Settlements' Global Report, issued in March this year, states that 500 million urban dwellers are homeless or live in inadequate housing.

In Indonesia, the government's involvement in providing housing is still limited. About 85 percent of additional urban housing required annually is supplied by communities themselves. The rest is supplied by public and private developers.

The government has introduced housing policies, including its Kampong Improvement Program and the balanced 1:3:6 housing scheme, whereby a developer is required to build six low-cost houses and three medium-cost houses for every luxury house.

In practice, however, private developers do not supply affordable housing to low-income groups. Housing costs increased 153 percent between 1980 and 1990.

The financial inability of low-income groups and the increasing price of urban land have led to the growth of more slum housing, particularly on public land in marginal areas, like along riverbanks or next to railroad tracks.

"Although some progress has been made, the settlement for all, especially for the urban poor is still a major issue," Budhy said.

The government's National Plan of Action pledges to promote housing development through urban renewal and improvement programs, and the resettlement of displaced populations. Partnerships between government, the private sector and the community, as well as expanding community-based housing development, are seen as other solutions to the housing shortage.

Problems -- Page 16