Sat, 02 Jan 1999

It's spend, spend and spend (almost) as usual

Religious traditions do not die even in times of acute economic crisis. As Christians marked Christmas, and Muslims will be observing Idul Fitri this month, we asked respondents in this survey how they planned to celebrate these festivities when the going is rough for just about everybody.

JAKARTA (JP): While almost no one is spared the impact of the economic crisis, most people in this country say they are celebrating the religious festivities the best they can.

A new survey conducted just before the Christmas holiday found that nearly 37 percent of 1,250 people questioned said they were celebrating either Christmas or Idul Fitri, which falls on Jan. 19, the way they have always done in the past.

Others said they would cut down on some frills; new clothes top the list for the axe for many people, followed by food, gifts, greeting cards, and even traveling.

This explains why shops selling clothes have seen sales slacken and why you have received fewer than usual greetings cards.

The result also confirms the suggestion that fewer people will likely be joining the annual exodus to the rural areas this coming Idul Fitri holiday.

The survey, commissioned jointly by The Jakarta Post and the D&R newsweekly, questioned 250 people in each of the five cities selected: Jakarta, Yogyakarta, Surabaya, Denpasar, and Medan.

They comprised 64 percent men and 36 percent women, and 72 percent Muslims, 19 percent Protestants and Catholics, and 9 percent Hindus and Buddhists.

The survey asked respondents how much increase in spending over their normal daily expenditures they would tolerate in order to celebrate the religious festivities, and 33 percent said they were prepared for up to 25 percent, and another 30 percent said they were prepared to spend up to 50 percent more than usual.

Given the soaring prices of basic food items these past few weeks, most people have no option but to increase their spending, that is unless the government succeeds in stabilizing the prices of such goods as eggs, beef and chicken.

The respondents said that in any case they have had to fork out more from their purse in the past year to spend their way out of the crisis, while nominal income, for the majority at least, has remained unchanged.

More than 7 percent of the respondents said their average spending has increased by 25 percent, 28 percent of the respondents said expenditures have gone up by 50 percent, and 19 percent said they have been spending up to 75 percent more just to maintain their standard of living. Another 27 percent of the respondents said their spending has doubled over the past year.

When it comes to their nominal income, nearly half of the respondents said theirs had remained unchanged, 27 percent said theirs had dropped, and nearly 10 percent said they have lost all permanent income. Only 13.5 percent of the respondents have been fortunate enough to see their income rising during this past year of economic crisis.

But unless one is earning in American dollars or other foreign currencies, the real value of rupiah-denominated income has plummeted considering that inflation in the whole of 1998 was officially put at 77 percent.

Many respondents appeared to be more pessimistic than government officials or even the most pessimistic economists when it comes to predicting when the current crisis will end.

More than 33 percent expected the crisis to last more than three years, 27 percent said it would last up to three years, and 29 percent said it would continue for between one and two years more.

Most respondents (59 percent) were at a loss as to what they would do if conditions deteriorate, saying that they would make do with whatever they had. More than 38 percent showed some entrepreneurial spirit, saying they would start a small business. Other answers include drawing on savings, returning to their home villages, or moving in with their parents or relatives.

Only 1.8 percent put down emigrating as an option.

The survey's answers have a five percent margin of error.