ITB warns of potential danger from NTT 7.7 M earthquake repeating 1992 Flores disaster
A Professor at the Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology (FITB) of ITB, Prof. Irwan Meilano, has warned of the potential danger from the 7.7 magnitude Flores earthquake that struck Nagekeo, East Nusa Tenggara, on Saturday, repeating the 1992 Flores earthquake-tsunami disaster.
Irwan explained in Bandung on Saturday that this is due to similarities in location and mechanism, where the shallow earthquake at a depth of 15 kilometres in the sea about 30 kilometres northeast of Nagekeo on Saturday triggered a tsunami early warning by BMKG until 07.30 WIB, with the epicentre located less than 40 kilometres from the centre of the 1992 Flores earthquake of magnitude 7.9.
Irwan explained that the earthquake source area is located on the Flores Back-Arc Thrust structure, which holds a history of large-scale destructive seismicity, such as the M6.6 earthquake in 2009 and the series of earthquakes north of Lombok in 2018.
The National Earthquake Study Centre (Pusgen) records that the Flores Back Arc segment still holds accumulated energy that has not been fully released. Irwan reminded that the pattern of the 2018 Lombok earthquakes could be repeated, where the main earthquake has the potential to trigger crack propagation on adjacent segments.
He urged the public not to let down their guard, given that dozens of aftershocks with significant magnitudes above 6.0 are still occurring and could potentially cause cumulative damage to supporting buildings.
The massive damage caused by the M7.7 earthquake was triggered by four fatal combinations: large magnitude, relatively shallow depth (10–15 km), epicentre position close to settlements, and the potential for shaking amplification due to local soil conditions and building quality.
Irwan encouraged emergency response teams and local governments to prioritise reliability assessments of school buildings, health facilities, and government buildings to support victim handling and accelerate recovery.
“It is highly likely that this earthquake could result in quite significant damage to strategic infrastructure. We are paying very serious attention especially to school buildings and health facilities. We very much hope these can recover in a short time,” Irwan added.