ITB: El Niño 2026-2027 to Trigger Drought but Also Open Economic Opportunities
The Bandung Institute of Technology’s Climate Change Centre (PPI ITB) has mapped a very strong El Nino phenomenon occurring in the 2026-2027 period, which not only poses a threat of drought but also opens economic opportunities in the form of increased national salt production and the expansion of rice planting areas in swamp land.
During an interactive talk show at the ITB PAU Building in Bandung on Thursday, experts from ITB and BMKG encouraged a paradigm shift in handling from emergency response to risk-based mitigation based on scientific predictions in order to strengthen national water and food security.
Head of PPI ITB Prof Djoko Santoso Abi Suroso stressed that weather forecast information several months before the peak of the phenomenon must be translated directly into tactical action on the ground before the water and food crisis reaches a critical condition.
“What we want to clarify is how to understand El Nino. The phenomenon occurs in the Pacific Ocean, but for the Indonesian people, the most important thing is to know what the impact is in their region, how big the risk is, and what needs to be anticipated,” said Djoko Santoso.
Senior Researcher at PPI ITB and BRIN Dr Elza Surmaini said the El Nino impact map is location- and sector-specific. She explained that historical data from 1990-2024 shows El Nino triggered a decline in national rice production of 0.5-1.7 million tonnes, but this did not occur evenly across all regions.
The climate anomaly, which tends to be drier, actually triggers an upwelling phenomenon that benefits capture fisheries, boosts salt production, and lowers water levels in lebak swamp land so that farmers can use it to expand rice planting areas.
“Increasing farmers’ adaptation capacity is one of the keys to reducing this risk. Efforts that can be made include strengthening weather and climate information and early warning systems, adjusting planting calendars, using drought-tolerant or early-maturing varieties, efficient water use, and crop diversification,” said Elza Surmaini.
On the meteorological side, Chair of the PPI ITB Expert Team Dr Tri Wahyu Hadi explained that the reduced supply of water vapour from the Pacific Ocean has a cascading impact on reduced river discharge, receding reservoir water levels, disruption to hydroelectric power plants, and an increased risk of forest and land fires.
Researcher in the Water Sector Hazard and Risk Division of PPI ITB Fikry Purwa Lugina urged water resource managers to strengthen watershed storage capacity, regulate water allocation, and monitor soil moisture in real time.
“Translate forecasts into decisions, not just information,” said Fikry.
Meanwhile, Director of Climate Change at BMKG Dr A Fachri Radjab urged the public to be aware of two phases of extreme weather at once, namely the risk of drought at the peak of the dry season and the threat of heavy rain and strong winds when entering the transitional season.
Head of the ITB Undergraduate Meteorology Study Programme Dr Muhammad Rais Abdillah added that understanding based on scientific data is the main key so that regional governments and the public can minimise disaster risk while optimising the economic potential that emerges during the 2026-2027 El Nino period.