Israel Views Turkey as a Greater Threat Than Iran

An analysis published by Israeli newspaper Maariv argues that Turkey now poses a greater and more serious threat to Israel than Iran, citing Ankara’s growing military capabilities and expanding defence industry. The analysis, reported by Middle East Eye and Sada News on Wednesday, highlights that Turkey has the second-largest armed forces among NATO member states. According to the Maariv analysis, Turkey has achieved approximately 80 percent self-sufficiency in its defence industry. The report examines the rapid progress Turkey has made in defence production and the enhancement of its military capabilities in recent years. It states that swift advances in domestic weapons production and military technology have significantly strengthened Turkey’s strategic position in the region. Israeli policymakers, the newspaper notes, are increasingly attentive to Ankara’s rising influence and capabilities, alongside more traditional regional security concerns. The analysis underscores the size of Turkey’s armed forces, emphasising that Ankara possesses a large number of tanks, including the domestically developed Altay main battle tank. It also points out that Turkey has built an advanced defence industrial system capable of producing most of its military needs domestically, while developing a multi-layered air defence system largely based on indigenous technology. However, according to the newspaper, the most significant threat in a potential confrontation with Israel could come from the Turkish Navy, which reportedly includes 16 submarines, frigates, and amphibious assault ships. The Turkish military has accumulated extensive operational experience over decades combating armed organisations, as well as engaging in military operations in Syria and Iraq, providing expertise in combat within densely populated and challenging mountainous terrain. The Maariv analysis also discusses what it describes as a decline in alignment between Israel and the United States. It stresses that Tel Aviv has yet to overcome the shock of President Donald Trump’s shifting stance on certain security needs along Israel’s northern border, before facing what may be an even more dangerous challenge from Turkey than from Iran.