Islamic alliance 'could lead to anti-Megawati plot'

Muhammad Nafik, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

A recent series of gatherings involving Muslim politicians could lead to the establishment of an Islamic alliance against President Megawati Soekarnoputri should she insist upon deterring the amendment process for the 1945 Constitution, analysts said.

"If Megawati makes a blunder by continuing to refuse the constitutional amendments, the grouping could be turned into an anti-Megawati alliance immediately," Arbi Sanit, an academic from University of Indonesia, said on Friday.

He warned that Muslim politicians along with their nationalist colleagues from the Golkar Party might even plot to oust Megawati from power if she failed to consistently support the much- demanded changes to the Constitution ahead of the 2004 elections.

Senior Muslim figures from major political parties and numerous Muslim organizations have held four separate meetings since last month to set up a new Islamic alliance aimed at countering the nationalist-oriented Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), which Megawati currently chairs.

The latest of which took place on Thursday evening, when they gathered at the residence of deputy speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) Cholil Bisri in Slipi.

Meeting attendees included former president Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid, chairman of the National Awakening Party (PKB) Alwi Shihab, Justice Party (PK) President Hidayat Nurwahid, legislator from the National Mandate Party (PAN) Fuad Bawazier and a number of Golkar leaders such as Fahmi Idris and Theo Sambuaga.

A well-placed source told The Jakarta Post Thursday evening that the meeting had originally planned to discuss whether or not to keep Megawati until her current tenure ends in 2004, but dropped that part of the agenda after PAN Chairman Amien Rais, who is also MPR speaker, did not show up for unknown reasons.

PAN is one of the Muslim-based political parties that formed the Central Axis Group which successfully blocked Megawati's bid in the 1999 presidential election.

PDI Perjuangan legislators and leaders were conspicuously absent from the meetings.

Megawati's husband Taufik Kiemas is reportedly trying to approach Muslim politicians to challenge the new alliance. He set up a private meeting with Gus Dur on June 4.

However, Arbi claimed Taufik's maneuvers would be futile as it was very difficult for Gus Dur to trust Taufik and Megawati.

Megawati also held a meeting at her residence on Thursday evening with Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Indonesian Military (TNI) Chief Gen. Endriartono Sutarto and the chiefs of staff of the Army, Navy and Air Force.

No information was available about the meeting, but a source close to the President said that the meeting was prompted by the Muslim politicians' gathering at Cholil's house.

According to Arbi, Muslim politicians plus Golkar legislators from Islamic groupings could declare Megawati and her party a "big enemy or threat" to the nation's reform process if she rejected a direct presidential election.

Speaking to journalists during last week's European visit, Megawati questioned whether the people were already prepared to hold a presidential election.

Syamsuddin Haris from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) said on Friday the recent meetings of Muslim politicians were aimed at consolidating their vision and mission in preparation for the 2004 elections.

"Their focus is not Megawati. Their political agenda and target are not clear yet," he said.

However, Syamsuddin said that with the meetings the group wanted to show its "strength" to put pressure on Megawati and PDI Perjuangan to implement the reform agenda.

Another political observer Fachry Ali said Muslim politicians were making a "trial-and-error" movement through the series of meetings to explore a possible alliance ahead of the next elections.

"What the political maneuvers actually will be, is still unpredictable," he said on Friday.

Fachry said the political meetings would give a full recognition of Gus Dur's camp of the National Awakening Party (PKB) that has been split into two factions. The other camp is led by current Minister of Defense Matori Abdul Djalil.

"It also benefits Gus Dur himself as he once again gets some of the limelight after his downfall last year," he added.