Is this hope real?

With the special session of the People's Consultative Assembly now only a month away, a glimpse of what the Indonesian political landscape might look like in the near future is slowly beginning to emerge.

Assuming that nothing untoward happens in the meantime, the special session will begin on Aug. 1 and last for about a week. And, again if nothing unforeseen gets in the way, during the session President Abdurrahman Wahid will most likely be impeached for incompetence, and his vice president, Megawati Soekarnoputri, will be sworn in as the new president of the Republic.

That is how political observers presuppose events over the coming few months, although in politics nothing can be taken for granted. That is why there is so much speculation swirling around Jakarta. After all, a great deal is at stake -- politically, economically and socially -- in how our politicians handle the situation and resolve the nation's current political predicament.

Fortunately, progress -- in a sense -- is noticeable, at least as compared to the situation in 1999, when the newly elected Assembly went through the painful process of electing a president and vice president. This progress is particularly noticeable as regards the leading player in the current political drama -- the holder of the largest number of seats in the national legislature, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan).

Internal rifts in the party aside -- a phenomenon which we may assume is quite normal in any political party that marches under the banner of democracy -- it must be admitted that in the relatively short time of less than two years this party has learned the lessons of 1999, when it lost the presidency to Abdurrahman Wahid due to its inability or unwillingness -- or even its arrogance -- to lobby other parties for the purpose of establishing a working coalition for an effective national leadership.

As it turns out, the consequences of the party's failure in 1999 have been disastrous for the nation. But that was then, and now the party displays a much greater political maturity, with the possible result that its chairwoman, Megawati Soekarnoputri may finally get the presidency, the post she coveted in 1999 but which escaped her.

It seems that not everyone within the party is happy with these new developments. But how does Megawati herself feel about it all. As usual, Megawati does not reveal much about either her own or her party's views. Nevertheless, it seems that she, too, has learned the lesson that silence is not always golden. Also, the almost two years she has been Vice President seem to have given her a greater degree of self-confidence, which will serve her well if or when she succeeds Abdurrahman as President.

At present, if unsubstantiated newspaper reports are to be believed, the outline of a new Cabinet should Megawati become President -- which will most likely be a Cabinet of professionals that takes the political balance in the national legislature into consideration -- is already taking shape as a result of intensive lobbying among political parties. For many people, this is cause for optimism. At least it gives people, prospective investors in particular, the prospect of greater certainty and stability than at present.

In difficult times such as these, people tend to cling to even the smallest straw -- or the smallest token of progress -- for survival. All that has been said is at this stage no more than mere speculation. As Megawati has put it, "The cake has not even been put in the oven, so why are we discussing how to cut it." And, as they say, the proof of the pudding, if not the cake, is in the eating. So, Indonesians had better remain patient and wait another month or two to see how things develop. For now, let's just hope for the best.