Is this hope real?

Is this hope real?

With the special session of the People's Consultative Assembly
now only a month away, a glimpse of what the Indonesian political
landscape might look like in the near future is slowly beginning
to emerge.

Assuming that nothing untoward happens in the meantime, the
special session will begin on Aug. 1 and last for about a week.
And, again if nothing unforeseen gets in the way, during the
session President Abdurrahman Wahid will most likely be impeached
for incompetence, and his vice president, Megawati Soekarnoputri,
will be sworn in as the new president of the Republic.

That is how political observers presuppose events over the
coming few months, although in politics nothing can be taken for
granted. That is why there is so much speculation swirling around
Jakarta. After all, a great deal is at stake -- politically,
economically and socially -- in how our politicians handle the
situation and resolve the nation's current political predicament.

Fortunately, progress -- in a sense -- is noticeable, at least
as compared to the situation in 1999, when the newly elected
Assembly went through the painful process of electing a president
and vice president. This progress is particularly noticeable as
regards the leading player in the current political drama -- the
holder of the largest number of seats in the national
legislature, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI
Perjuangan).

Internal rifts in the party aside -- a phenomenon which we may
assume is quite normal in any political party that marches under
the banner of democracy -- it must be admitted that in the
relatively short time of less than two years this party has
learned the lessons of 1999, when it lost the presidency to
Abdurrahman Wahid due to its inability or unwillingness -- or
even its arrogance -- to lobby other parties for the purpose of
establishing a working coalition for an effective national
leadership.

As it turns out, the consequences of the party's failure in
1999 have been disastrous for the nation. But that was then, and
now the party displays a much greater political maturity, with
the possible result that its chairwoman, Megawati Soekarnoputri
may finally get the presidency, the post she coveted in 1999 but
which escaped her.

It seems that not everyone within the party is happy with
these new developments. But how does Megawati herself feel about
it all. As usual, Megawati does not reveal much about either her
own or her party's views. Nevertheless, it seems that she, too,
has learned the lesson that silence is not always golden. Also,
the almost two years she has been Vice President seem to have
given her a greater degree of self-confidence, which will serve
her well if or when she succeeds Abdurrahman as President.

At present, if unsubstantiated newspaper reports are to be
believed, the outline of a new Cabinet should Megawati become
President -- which will most likely be a Cabinet of professionals
that takes the political balance in the national legislature into
consideration -- is already taking shape as a result of intensive
lobbying among political parties. For many people, this is cause
for optimism. At least it gives people, prospective investors in
particular, the prospect of greater certainty and stability than
at present.

In difficult times such as these, people tend to cling to even
the smallest straw -- or the smallest token of progress -- for
survival. All that has been said is at this stage no more than
mere speculation. As Megawati has put it, "The cake has not even
been put in the oven, so why are we discussing how to cut it."
And, as they say, the proof of the pudding, if not the cake, is
in the eating. So, Indonesians had better remain patient and wait
another month or two to see how things develop. For now, let's
just hope for the best.