Is the AI Phenomenon Similar to the Computer Era? Widely Used, Yet Productivity Gains Not Significant
NEW YORK - Hopes that artificial intelligence (AI) would immediately boost workplace productivity have not yet been fully realised. This phenomenon recalls the “productivity paradox” noted by Nobel laureate economist Robert Solow in 1987.
At that time, following the emergence of transistors, microprocessors, and memory chips in the 1960s, many believed computer technology would trigger a surge in productivity. However, the opposite occurred: productivity growth slowed from 2.9 per cent in the 1948–1973 period to just 1.1 per cent after 1973.
Computers were even criticised for generating too much information, leading to highly detailed reports that piled up in printed form. This situation meant that the technology expected to enhance efficiency did not deliver tangible impacts in its initial years.
“You can see the computer age everywhere, except in the productivity statistics,” Solow wrote in the New York Times Book Review in 1987.
A National Bureau of Economic Research study also found that the majority of executives have not yet felt a significant impact from AI.
As quoted from Fortune on Monday (20/4/2026), from 6,000 CEOs, CFOs, and company leaders in the US, UK, Germany, and Australia, around two-thirds have indeed used AI, but on average only about 1.5 hours per week.
Even, 25 per cent of respondents admitted to not using AI at all.
In the last three years, nearly 90 per cent of companies stated that AI has not impacted productivity or the workforce.
Nevertheless, expectations for AI remain high. Executives estimate that this technology will increase productivity by 1.4 per cent and output by 0.8 per cent in the next three years.
Meanwhile, companies project a workforce reduction of 0.7 per cent, but workers see potential for a 0.5 per cent increase in job opportunities.
Several studies indicate that AI does have great potential. A 2023 Massachusetts Institute of Technology study stated that AI use can improve worker performance by nearly 40 per cent compared to those not using the technology.
However, the impact is not yet visible at the macro level. Apollo’s chief economist, Torsten Slok, said, “AI is everywhere, except in the macroeconomic data.”
He also noted that outside of large technology companies, there is no visible influence of AI on profit margins or revenue expectations.
Findings from other studies vary. A Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis report recorded a cumulative productivity increase of 1.9 per cent since the end of 2022 following the emergence of ChatGPT.