Is it true that petroleum will run out in 40 years? Here are the facts
Jakarta (ANTARA) - Petroleum remains one of the primary energy sources used in various countries. Vehicle fuel, aviation, industry, and various petrochemical products still depend on this commodity, which was formed through geological processes over millions of years.
As its use continues, questions regarding when petroleum will run out frequently arise. Will the world truly run out of oil in the coming decades?
The answer is not as simple as calculating the current amount of oil reserves and dividing it by annual consumption.
According to data from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the Annual Statistical Bulletin 2026, global oil demand reached an average of 105.15 million barrels per day in 2025. Meanwhile, global crude oil production reached an average of 74.85 million barrels per day. OPEC also noted that the world’s proven crude oil reserves at the end of 2024 reached approximately 1.567 trillion barrels.
If the proven reserves of 1.567 trillion barrels are compared simply with consumption of around 105.15 million barrels per day, the result does indeed fall within the 40-year range.
However, this figure does not mean that petroleum will truly run out in about 40 years. This figure cannot be viewed like the contents of a tank that continuously decreases without any change.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) explains that the reserve-to-production ratio is often used to estimate how long oil reserves can last. However, the agency warns that this metric can be misleading if used as a long-term prediction.
This is because proven reserves only include resources that are known and can be produced economically under certain conditions. As technology advances and new projects are discovered, the amount of producible reserves can also change.
This means the world does not necessarily have to wait until a day when all the oil in the earth is completely empty before it stops using it. Rather, changes in technology, prices, energy policies, and the emergence of alternative energy sources can cause oil demand to decrease before the earth’s reserves are truly exhausted.
This is where the predictions of energy experts become interesting. In the World Energy Outlook 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that under the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), global oil demand will reach approximately 102 million barrels per day around 2030 before gradually declining. One influential factor is the increasing use of electric vehicles.
The IEA also noted in its Oil 2025 report that based on the policies and market trends existing at the time the report was made, global oil demand is expected to increase to around 105.5 million barrels per day by the end of the decade before entering a flat phase and beginning a slight decline in 2030.
The difference in these figures shows that there is no single prediction regarding the future of petroleum. The outcome depends heavily on assumptions regarding government policies, economic growth, electric vehicle development, clean energy technology, and market conditions.
The IEA noted that oil demand for the petrochemical and aviation sectors is still expected to increase in the long term. This means that although electric vehicles reduce the use of petrol and diesel, the need for oil does not automatically disappear.
Oil also serves as a raw material for various petrochemical products used in daily life. Therefore, the energy transition is not only about replacing fuel-based vehicles with electric ones, but also about finding alternatives for various other uses of oil.
So, when will petroleum run out? There is no specific year that can be identified as the definitive date for the depletion of the world’s petroleum. If using only a simple calculation between proven reserves and current consumption, the world’s oil reserves appear to be able to last for several decades. However, the EIA emphasises that such an approach is not an accurate measure for predicting when all oil resources will be exhausted.
Developments in technology, the discovery of new reserves, production levels, prices, energy policies, and changes in demand can alter these calculations over time. Therefore, the more relevant question is not merely “when will petroleum run out?”, but rather how quickly the world is reducing its dependence on oil and how energy needs will be met when demand begins to decline. With current energy transition trends, the world has the potential to undergo significant changes in oil usage long before all the oil reserves in the earth are truly exhausted.