Iraq war could inspire more attacks in Asian countries

Iraq war could inspire more attacks in Asian countries

Jane Macartney, Reuters, Singapore

Some of the most dramatic and devastating attacks by Osama bin
Laden's al-Qaeda network were born in Asia, home to the world's
biggest Muslim population.

It is the region most likely to be the target of extremist
attacks if the United States invades Iraq, analysts say.

"If the U.S. gets bogged down and we see civilian casualties,
then there will be worldwide anger in the Muslim ummah
(community)," said Andrew Tan of Singapore's Institute of Defence
and Strategic Studies.

"There could be a quantum leap in terrorism."

The region is vulnerable and volatile. Suspected to be on the
run somewhere in southeast Asia is Hambali, the nom-de-guerre of
Indonesian-born Riduan Isamuddin, the main go-between for the
Jamaah Islamiah group of southeastern Asia and bin Laden's al-
Qaeda. Terror experts say he is the only man from the region to
win a place at al-Qaeda's top table.

He is suspected to have been a moving force behind the Bali
bombing, and to have been present when al-Qaeda operations'
leaders met in Malaysia to plot the strike against the USS Cole
in Yemen and the Sept. 11 attacks on New York and Washington.

Hambali may not take over al-Qaeda's military operations after
the dramatic pre-dawn arrest in Pakistan this month of al-Qaeda's
chief of military operations, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. However, he
will maintain close contacts with the man most likely to replace
Mohammed, Tawfiq Attash, a Yemeni suspected of masterminding the
USS Cole attack in October 2000, said Rohan Gunaratna, author of
Inside al Qaeda: Global Network of Terror.

A forward operations planner, such as Mohammed or Attash, will
keep moving outside Afghanistan to ensure their ability to
communicate with their men in the field.

The field in which they might find conditions most conducive
to a new attack could well be in southeast Asia, say analysts.

"We are seeing the size and strength of terrorist groups
growing in the region, and the U.S. threat to intervene in Iraq
is having an impact," said Gunaratna.

And the infrastructure of Jamaah Islamiah (JI), with its goal
of creating a Muslim state encompassing much of southeast Asia,
remains nearly intact after the arrest of most members of the
cell that carried out last October's Bali bombing.

"You have about 2,000 JI members, about 400 who are believed
to have had training in Afghan camps, and only 12 have been
arrested," said one expert on terror activities.

"In terms of infrastructure, JI is still very much intact,"
said Gunaratna.

Australia lacks the legislation to mop up JI cells, he said.
Indonesia lacks the political will even though it arrested the
suspected perpetrators of the Bali bombing.

"Given Indonesia's vast size and uncontrolled regions, the JI
can operate with near impunity, and Jakarta is nigh unable to
squelch the group," said a report from Stratfor, a think tank
founded by former U.S. intelligence analysts.

Many activists have gone underground in southern Thailand and
the southern Philippines.

"The hallmark of the JI and al-Qaeda is that they hit what
they can at any given time, depending on their given
capabilities," said Zachary Abuza, a terror expert based at
Simmons College in Boston.

"They are biding their time and rebuilding, they are in
regrouping and rebuilding mode and a war in Iraq will assist
them," Abuza said.

These experts see the likelihood of demonstrations against a
war in Iraq in southeast Asia, but even more serious will be the
psychological and emotional impact on disaffected peoples,
marginalized in societies riven by a gulf between rich and poor.

"This is going to enrage a segment of the population and they
will be more susceptible to recruitment," said Abuza.

And that, combined with pressure on intelligence services to
stop cooperating in the midst of a war on Iraq that some sectors
of the population will see as a strike against Islam, raises the
likelihood of attempts to hit soft targets in Asia.
There is no shortage.

Western tourists flock to the sugary sand beaches of southern
Thailand and the palm-fringed islands of Malaysia and Indonesia.
Singapore is a haven of prosperity and a base for Western
businesses in the region. It was chosen as a target by Khalid
Sheikh Mohammed's operatives in late 2001 but the plot to bomb
the U.S. and other embassies was uncovered by Singapore's
vigilant intelligence services.

The way Singapore is taking no chances underscores the level
of concern. It has built underground decontamination chambers in
13 new subway stations. Bomb shelters exist to house 945,000
people, or a quarter of the wealthy island nation's population.

Emergency handbooks have been distributed to a million
households telling people how to deal with terrorist attacks,
including chemical and biological warfare.

"Terrorism has globalized," said Ho Peng Kee, senior minister
of state for law and home affairs.

"Singapore's aim is to minimize the impact of an attack that
the authorities think may be unavoidable," said Tan. "They want
to minimize the casualties and the political and economic
impact."

And what of an Iraq war sparking unrest in Pakistan, where
several of al-Qaeda's top leaders have been captured and some
vicious extremist attacks have taken lives in the past year.

"There will be fallout," said Pakistani President Pervez
Musharraf last week. "It is being seen as the Islamic world is
being targeted by the people of the western world."

Musharraf insists the man who inspired much of the violence,
al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden, is not on his territory.

A hunt in Pakistan's southwesternmost corner that abuts Iran
and Afghanistan has raised suspicions the world's most wanted man
may have flickered into U.S. sights. Those who know him say he
will not allow himself to be captured alive and -- in death --
could become martyr to inspire yet more violence.