Iran's Oil Exports Surge, Prices Higher Than Before the War

Iran has reported exporting more than 40 million barrels of crude oil since the United States lifted its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Parliamentary Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that Iran is currently selling oil at prices approximately 20% higher than during the pre-war period. The export surge follows the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Iran and the US on 17 June 2026, ending a conflict that lasted nearly four months. The agreement included the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and established a 60-day negotiation period to draft a permanent peace treaty. The ceasefire triggered a rapid increase in crude shipments through the vital waterway, which had been completely halted during the conflict. “Since the day the naval blockade was lifted, we have exported more than 40 million barrels of oil,” Ghalibaf said in a televised interview broadcast via his Telegram channel on Tuesday (30/6). He added that during the two-month blockade before the agreement, Iran was unable to export a single barrel of oil. Meanwhile, tanker tracking firm TankerTrackers.com provided a higher estimate of 50 million barrels over the past two weeks, based on satellite imagery and real-time automatic identification system (AIS) monitoring. In global markets, Brent crude was trading around US$73 per barrel on Wednesday (1/7), representing a nearly 40% decline from the wartime peak of US$118 in April. The price drop was driven by diplomatic progress and expectations of returning supply from the Gulf. Eurasia Group senior analyst Gregory Brew noted that before the war, Iranian crude typically sold at a discount of US$10 to US$15 below Brent to compensate buyers for sanctions risk. Current conditions, however, indicate a strengthening of Iran’s bargaining position in energy markets. Under the MoU, Iran agreed to allow ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz free of tolls for 60 days, though Ghalibaf stressed that administrative control remains with Tehran. “Sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz lies with Iran and Oman. Traffic through the strait is subject to regulations determined by Iran,” he asserted. Ghalibaf also dismissed claims by US President Donald Trump that unfrozen Iranian assets would be used to purchase American agricultural products. Of the approximately US$24 billion in assets frozen abroad, Ghalibaf stated that US$12 billion (around Rp196 trillion) would be handed over to Iran’s central bank. “The funds will be used to purchase whatever goods the country needs, at whatever price and in whatever currency in the world,” he concluded. The governance mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz after the 60-day transition period remains unclear. Ships currently transit the strait through the southern corridor along the coast of Oman or through the northern route controlled by Iran.