Iran's Confrontation Strategy Ahead of US Midterms: An Attempt to Weaken Donald Trump
Iran is reported to be intensifying its confrontational actions against the United States in the hope of increasing the burden of conflict for President Donald Trump. This move comes less than two months before the crucial US midterm elections.
More than half a year after war broke out on 28 February—triggered by US-Israeli attacks that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—Tehran has chosen to escalate tensions. Rather than pursuing a diplomatic path, Iran is seen as daringly taking the risk of returning to all-out combat.
On the other asides, Trump is under immense pressure to end the war as the 3 November election approaches. “I think the war will end shortly after the election because Iran cannot hold out much longer,” Trump stated on Wednesday (9/9).
Although the command structure in Tehran remains unclear because the successor and son of Khamenei, Mojtaba, has yet to appear in public, Iranian leadership continues to reaffirm their traditional policy of confrontation. Iran has not only closed access to free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz but has also expanded no-go zones in vital energy routes that transport one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply.
“Iran feels it is winning the war and the US is losing,” said Thomas Juneau, a professor at the University of Ottawa. According to him, Tehran sees an opportunity to exploit US weaknesses to reshape the regional order to their advantage.
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, added that Iran is attempting to turn escalation into leverage. “Tehran believes that pressure in Hormuz can exploit the political and economic costs of other Middle East crises ahead of the midterms,” she explained.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated it had targeted 1s ships attempting to cross the no-go zone in the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, they claimed to have attacked a US military base in Jordan in retaliation for the destruction of five Iranian oil tankers by US forces the previous day. CBS News reports suggest that approximately eight US F-15 fighter jets sustained minor damage due to the attack.
In Tehran, anti-US rhetoric remains fervent. Banners reading “We will kill Trump” and images of American soldiers’ coffins being returned adorn the city streets.
Mohsen Rezaei, the new head of Iran’s highest national security council, reaffirmed distrust towards the US. “We will not take further steps unless they take confidence-building measures. They must prove it,” asserted Rezaei, who is now a key hardline figure under the shadow of Mojtaba Khamenei.
Analysts assess that Iran hopes this pressure will cause the Republican Party to lose control of the US House and Senate. If this occurs, Trump will become a politically weakened president during the final two years of his term.
“Iran cannot defeat the US militarily,” said Ali Alfoneh from the Arab Gulf States Institute. “Instead, Tehran hopes to weaken Trump politically by keeping petrol prices high and reminding American voters that the president has dragged the US into an ‘endless war’ that he previously promised to avoid.”
However, this strategy is not without risk. Juneau warned that the Iranian leadership is highly vulnerable domestically due to the economic crisis that triggered massive protests last January. Public anger in Iran is predicted to continue rising as economic conditions worsen, presenting a significant risk that Tehran may overreach in this political game.