Iran's Assassination Threat Against Donald Trump Increasingly Credible

Since the combined United States and Israeli attack in February that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with several other senior officials, Iran’s revenge plot to assassinate Donald Trump is no longer mere speculation. The threat is now considered highly credible by Washington’s security authorities.

Last month in Turkey, the US government executed a complex tactic to spirit Trump away from the presidential aircraft, Air Force One. This drastic measure shocked many in Washington, including Trump’s aides and the journalists who remained on the jet, which was believed to be the target of an Iranian missile strike.

Colin P. Clarke, Executive Director of The Soufan Center, assessed that the unusual protective measure demonstrates the seriousness of the threat. However, he also noted that leaving others in danger while securing the president projects a poor image and risks making Trump appear weak.

According to Clarke, the threat predates the current war, primarily stemming from the Trump administration’s decision to approve the strike on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Qassem Suleimani. ‘I think the threat to Trump will persist as long as he is alive, whether he is in office or not,’ Clarke asserted.

Bruce Hoffman, a counter-terrorism expert from the Council on Foreign Relations, explained that for Iran, revenge is a deeply serious matter. Beyond physical attacks, humiliation is also considered a form of retaliation. Reports that Trump had to be evacuated from Air Force One using a catering truck are seen as providing a measure of satisfaction for Tehran. ‘Regardless of how close or serious the plot was, Iran is exploiting this situation to humiliate the US,’ Hoffman said.

Although a direct attack on American soil has yet to succeed, experts warn against underestimating Iran’s capabilities. Matthew Levitt of The Washington Institute noted that while Iran’s operational capacity may have been diminished by US-Israeli airstrikes targeting key figures like Rahman Moqadam and Majid Khademi, their appetite for escalation remains high.

This situation is predicted to complicate negotiations to end the war. With Iran remaining bold enough to attempt targeting a sitting US president, Washington faces a significant challenge in determining its future security and diplomatic calculus.