Iran Will Not Trade Its 'Diamond' for Your 'Candy', Mr. Trump

Iran is not backing down against the United States. The defiant stance underscores Iran’s belief that it holds significant bargaining power following the war, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. The funeral of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was not merely a national farewell; it served as a political message to the US and Israel that efforts to weaken the Islamic Republic have failed. Instead of appearing weakened by the conflict that began with US and Israeli attacks on 28 February 2026, Iran is projecting an image of a nation that remains strong, united, and ready to determine its own future. This resilience now forms the foundation of Tehran’s negotiation strategy. Iran views its endurance during the war as a key asset, and the 60-day ceasefire initiated by Washington is seen as an opportunity to convert this strategic advantage into a permanent diplomatic gain.

Central to Iran’s bargaining position is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy supplies. Tehran believes the war has solidified its strategic position there, and it now demands that any agreement on its nuclear programme must begin with an acknowledgment of its influence over the waterway. As one analyst noted, Iran considers the strait a ‘diamond’ and views the lifting of economic sanctions and the release of frozen assets as mere ‘candy’ by comparison. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf reinforced this, calling the Strait of Hormuz Iran’s greatest tool of power and a ‘divine blessing’ that the nation will not relinquish under any circumstances.

Diplomats and regional officials suggest Iran is deliberately slowing the negotiation process to secure its strategic gains before returning to nuclear talks. For Tehran, which denies seeking nuclear weapons, the uranium issue can wait, but consolidating its position over the Strait of Hormuz cannot. Former US diplomat Alan Eyre noted that Iran is happy to prolong negotiations to institutionalise its control over the shipping corridor, which handles about 20% of the world’s oil and LNG supply. Analysts also believe President Donald Trump is under greater domestic political pressure to reach a deal, giving Iran the upper hand. Former Middle East negotiator Aaron David Miller described the 60-day deadline as an ‘illusion’, stating that the war has strengthened Iran’s position and that Tehran will not return to the pre-war status quo. The economic impact of the conflict is also expected to surface soon, with Gulf banking and property sectors likely to show strain in upcoming Q2 2026 financial reports, while energy companies may benefit from higher oil prices despite supply disruptions.