Iran War Becomes Boomerang for Trump, Evidence It Can "Fall While Climbing the Ladder"
The conflict between Iran and the United States (US) now has the potential to become a boomerang for President Donald Trump. At least several facts illustrate this.
More than two months since the war broke out, there has been no clear military or diplomatic victory. On the contrary, the situation has become increasingly deadlocked, with growing risks of economic and political losses for Washington.
Citing AFP on Wednesday (6/5/2026), both sides claim to be in a strong position, but sharp differences in stance make an exit route difficult to see. Even when Tehran proposed a new initiative to restart negotiations through a mediator, Trump immediately rejected it.
This deadlock has sparked concerns that the conflict will drag on indefinitely, leaving worse impacts than before the war began.
The most tangible effects are starting to be felt in the economic sector. Petrol prices in the US have surpassed US$4 per gallon, or around Rp69,000 per gallon, adding pressure on Trump whose popularity continues to decline.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump’s public approval rating dropping to 34%, the lowest level during his tenure. This situation also worsens the Republican Party’s chances ahead of the midterm elections.
In fact, the US government continues to show optimism. White House spokesperson Olivia Wales stated that military and economic pressure on Iran is steadily increasing.
“President Trump holds all the cards and has time to reach the best deal,” she said.
However, a different view comes from Laura Blumenfeld of Johns Hopkins University. According to her, Trump will be remembered as “the US president who made the world less safe”.
Several main war objectives are also considered unachieved. The ambition to curb Iran’s nuclear programme is still far from success, with uranium stockpiles believed to remain secure despite having been targeted in attacks.
Tehran continues to insist on maintaining its right to enrich uranium. Efforts to halt Iran’s support for proxy groups such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas have also shown no significant results.
On the other hand, Iran is seen as gaining new strategic advantages, particularly through its control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. Disruptions in this route have triggered shocks in the global energy market.
“Iran has realised that they can close the strait at any time. That knowledge makes them stronger,” said another observer from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Jon Alterman.
With negotiations stalled, several analysts warn that this conflict could turn into a frozen conflict. This refers to a situation without clear resolution but continuously fuelling tensions.
The United States must also bear new strategic costs, including strained relations with European allies and rising tensions within NATO. Domestically, pressure on Trump to end this unpopular war is mounting.
In this all-difficult situation, Trump is said to be considering various options, from prolonged naval blockades to the possibility of a unilateral withdrawal. However, a step back risks being perceived as a victory for Iran. Analyst Sina Toossi even assesses that Tehran is currently just playing for time, waiting for a more favourable moment.