Iran War Backfires on Trump, Risks Encircling Him from All Sides

The United States government is confronting a major dilemma in its conflict with Iran. After more than five months of war, Washington’s room for manoeuvre is seen as increasingly narrow, with every available option carrying the potential for greater political, economic, and military costs. The Trump administration has stated that a three-night pause in airstrikes was intended to open a window for diplomacy, whilst remaining prepared for possible new escalation. US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz stressed that the government is not ruling out military action. “The regime should believe the president when he says, ‘we are ready to fight’ and all options are on the table,” Waltz said in an interview with CBS. On the other hand, diplomatic signals remain very limited. Iran confirmed it has held talks with Oman at the deputy foreign minister level, but has shown no indication it will alter its core demand regarding control over shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Waltz remains optimistic that Washington’s position is stronger. “Iran is diplomatically isolated, economically isolated, and militarily devastated. They have never been this weak and we are negotiating from a position of strength,” he told NBC. Nevertheless, Trump’s strategy is considered to have not yet yielded significant change. More intense military strikes have been unable to force Tehran to alter its stance. The option to escalate operations to include ground troops does exist, but such a step risks heavy US casualties and could trigger public backlash against an increasingly unpopular war. Pressure is also mounting on the economic front. The recent rise in oil prices has heightened concerns about a surge in fuel costs in the US, even though Brent crude prices temporarily corrected by more than 5%. Threats to alternative shipping routes in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi groups, coupled with dwindling global oil inventories, increase the risk of an energy crisis whilst becoming a political liability for Trump ahead of the midterm elections. Doubts about the escalation strategy have also emerged within the administration itself. Vice President JD Vance and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine reportedly voiced concerns during a White House meeting about the widening impact of the war, including on US ammunition stockpiles. Assessments by the CIA and the US Defence Intelligence Agency also suggest the latest strikes are unlikely to alter Iran’s negotiating position. Another option under consideration is tightening the economic blockade on Iranian ships and ports to cut off the Tehran government’s funding sources. However, this policy is expected to take weeks to months to produce results, whilst Iran is likely to retaliate by stepping up attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, amplifying the impact on the global economy. A further alternative is to revive a memorandum of understanding and push for a temporary ceasefire, though the chances are considered slim because Iran is expected to agree only if it secures the right to regulate and derive economic benefit from traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Such a concession could trigger harsh domestic political criticism of Trump. The dilemma is also reflected in the latest CBS News/YouGov poll. Only 31% of Americans say they understand the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, 40% believe the US is in a position of strength, whilst 76% believe the war against Iran is proving far more difficult than the Trump administration initially predicted.